Agent of 'BTC OG Insider Whale': Market Has Not Priced in War's Duration, Long-term Attrition Aligns with U.S. Interests

On April 5, Garrett Jin, the agent of ‘BTC OG Insider Whale’, published a lengthy article titled ‘Oil is War’, stating that oil is not a byproduct of the U.S.-Iran war, but rather the core driving force of the conflict itself. All other economic and financial variables (stock markets, bonds, cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve policies, food prices, etc.) are downstream results of oil prices. Those who can accurately predict oil trends will understand the direction of the entire market. Jin believes that the U.S.-Iran war has exceeded expectations of ‘surgical airstrikes’ and has evolved into a long-term attrition war. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a structural increase in oil prices, rather than a temporary spike. The war has escalated into a prolonged conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for over five weeks, U.S. ground troops gathering, and no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran’s strategy is not to win, but to make the war costly enough to force Washington to seek an exit. The most likely scenario is entering a long-term attrition war, which aligns with U.S. interests—forcing global buyers to turn to North American energy while high oil prices stimulate domestic production in the U.S. The market has priced in the war, but has not yet priced in its duration. Each oil price pullback presents a buying opportunity. As U.S. ground troops are deployed with no quick victory in sight, oil prices will impact interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets. According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of this month is 18%, before the end of May is 34%, and before the end of June is 46%.