Shouchuang Futures: Market sentiment eases, alumina rises sharply then pulls back

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-05T12:12:06+00:00

The price of aluminum oxide once surged past 3,100 yuan but has retreated to around 3,000 yuan due to easing market sentiment. In the short term, the oversupply situation is unlikely to change, with new production capacity coming online. Additionally, exports of bauxite from Guinea are expected to decrease, providing support to mineral prices and aluminum oxide costs, but the risk of prices exceeding 3,000 yuan remains significant.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-05 12:12:06

Abstract generation in progress

Positive catalysts stacking up pushed alumina to trade above 3,100 yuan at one point. However, as market sentiment eased, alumina saw a spike followed by a pullback today, giving back more than 2% of its prior gains. It may now trade in a range around 3,000 yuan. In 2025, Guinea’s bauxite export volume is approaching 183 million tons, up 25% from 2024. Some institutions project it will be reduced to around 150 million tons, down about 20% year over year, which should provide support for ore prices. Alumina will also receive cost-side support, but we expect that in the short term it will be difficult to change alumina’s surplus situation. Not long ago, new capacity was released in Guangxi (2.4 million tons) after commissioning, and more capacity releases are expected to follow. The risk above 3,000 yuan for alumina will be relatively high. (Capital Futures)

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