"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent: The market has not yet priced in the durability of the war; a long-term attrition war aligns with American interests.

Mars Finance News: On April 5, “BTC OG Insider Giant Whale” agent Garrett Jin published a long-form article titled “Oil Is War,” saying that oil is not a byproduct of the U.S.-Iran war, but the core driving force of war itself; all other economic and financial variables (stock markets, bonds, cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve policy, food prices, etc.) are downstream results of oil prices. Whoever can correctly judge the oil price trend can understand the direction of the entire market. Garrett Jin believes that the U.S.-Iran war has gone beyond expectations of a “surgical-style airstrike” and has evolved into a long-term attrition war. Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a structural rise in oil prices, rather than a temporary spike. The war has been escalated into a prolonged conflict; the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for more than five weeks. U.S. ground forces are assembling, with no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran’s strategy is not about winning, but about making the war expensive enough to force Washington to seek an exit. The most likely scenario is entering a long-term attrition war, which aligns with U.S. interests—pressuring global buyers to shift toward North American energy, while high oil prices stimulate increased production at home in the United States. The market has priced in the war, but has not yet priced in the war’s durability. Every time oil prices pull back, it’s a buying opportunity. As U.S. ground forces are deployed and cannot achieve a quick victory, oil prices will transmit to interest rates, exchange rates, the stock market, and the credit markets. According to PolyBeats monitoring, currently on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire occurring by the end of this month is 18%; by the end of May is 34%; and by the end of June is 46%.