IREN Stock: Analysts See 100%+ Upside on AI Pivot — So Why Is It Down 20%?

TLDR

• IREN stock rose ~2% to $34.77 midday Thursday, recovering after a ~20% five-session sell-off
• The drop was driven by investor concerns over a $6B at-the-market equity offering, new U.S. tariffs on AI chips, and execution risks in its pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud
• Q2 earnings missed badly: EPS of ($0.44) vs. ($0.07) expected; revenue of $184.69M vs. $229.64M estimated, down 23.1% year-over-year
• Analyst consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $71.69–$79.31, though Freedom Capital initiated with a “Hold” at $36
• IREN has secured 50,000+ Nvidia B300 GPUs, targeting a $3.7B AI cloud revenue run-rate by end of 2026; next earnings due May 13

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IREN had a rough stretch. Over just five trading sessions the stock shed around 20%, dragged down by a mix of financing concerns, tariff fears, and skepticism about its big strategic shift. Friday’s bounce offered some relief, but the debate around this company is far from settled.

IREN Limited, IREN

The numbers that kicked things off weren’t pretty. In its second fiscal quarter ended December 31, IREN reported a loss of $0.44 per share — well below the consensus estimate of ($0.07). Revenue came in at $184.69 million, missing the $229.64 million expected and falling 23.1% compared to the same period last year.

The miss was partly tied to IREN’s transition away from Bitcoin mining infrastructure toward GPU-based AI cloud capacity. Swapping out ASIC machines for GPUs is expensive and disruptive, and the financials showed it.

Then came the announcement that rattled confidence further. IREN said it plans to raise up to $6 billion through an at-the-market equity offering. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts framed it as an optional, flexible capital tool — but markets weren’t convinced, and the stock took another leg down.

New U.S. tariffs on AI chips added another headwind that investors didn’t love.

Analyst Camp Is Split

Freedom Capital initiated coverage with a “Hold” rating and a $36 price target, the most cautious view among recent initiations. The firm warned that IREN’s pivot to AI cloud could take longer than expected and carries real execution risk.

On the other side, Bernstein reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating, pointing to IREN’s structured approach to AI cloud buildout. They highlighted the company’s mix of long-term contracts and on-demand capacity, plus its relationship with Microsoft as a key anchor.

The broader analyst picture: 13 buys, 4 holds, 1 sell. Average price target sits between $71.69 and $79.31 — more than double where the stock has been trading lately. Goldman Sachs sits in the middle with a “Neutral” and a $39 target. HC Wainwright is the most bullish at $80.

GPU Scale-Up and What’s Coming

IREN has secured purchase agreements for over 50,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs, which would bring its total fleet to 150,000 units. The company says that’s enough to support an annualized AI cloud revenue run-rate above $3.7 billion by end of 2026.

On the infrastructure side, the Sweetwater 1 facility (1,400 MW) is targeting substation energization in April 2026. Sweetwater 2 (600 MW) follows by end of 2027. Both sites are slated to reach a combined two gigawatts of capacity.

IREN’s market cap sits around $11.55 billion. Beta is 4.29 — this stock moves. Institutional ownership stands at 41%.

The next hard data point arrives May 13, when IREN reports quarterly earnings. Analysts are currently forecasting a loss of $0.23 per share.

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