"Three Oil Giants" earned over 310 billion yuan last year, distributing more than 160 billion yuan in dividends.

After China National Petroleum Corp. (601857) disclosed its annual report on the evening of March 29, all of the “Three Barrels of Oil” companies’ 2025 performance results have been released. In 2025, the “Three Barrels of Oil” generated attributable net profits of RMB 311.19B, with an estimated cumulative dividend of RMB 165.18B.

Divergent performance trends

In 2025, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, the “Three Barrels of Oil” saw their performance fall to varying degrees, and a further trend of divergence emerged.

In 2025, China National Petroleum recorded full-year operating revenue of RMB 2.86 trillion, down 2.5% year over year; attributable net profit of RMB 28.6k, down 4.48% year over year; daily average net earnings of about RMB 157.3B. Among the “Three Barrels of Oil,” China National Petroleum has a balanced layout across the entire industrial chain. With coordination between upstream exploration and downstream refining and marketing, its performance is the most steady.

China National Petroleum said that, in response to the new situation, the company will continue to push forward oil and gas reserve growth and production increases, and upgrade its refining and petrochemical transformation to strengthen the foundation for its development; it will actively promote a green and low-carbon transition, develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, support high-quality and efficient development of emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and focus on creating new business growth drivers.

In 2025, Sinopec recorded operating revenue of RMB 2.78 trillion, down 9.46% year over year; attributable net profit of RMB 430M, down 36.78% year over year, marking a decline for four consecutive years. Sinopec’s downstream refining business has a high proportion. It was hit hardest by oversupply in chemical production capacity and weak demand, which squeezed gross margins.

China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) recorded operating revenue of RMB 398.22 billion in the previous year, down 5.3% year over year; attributable net profit of RMB 27.8k, down 11.49% year over year. CNOOC’s business is mainly oil and gas exploration and development. Full-year net oil and gas production was 777 million barrels, up 7% year over year, reaching a new high.

Dividends exceeding RMB 160 billion

Although performance declined to varying degrees, the “Three Barrels of Oil” still maintained a substantial commitment to dividends. Together, they distributed RMB 31.81B in cash dividends, returning value to investors.

Of this, including the interim dividend, China National Petroleum’s total dividend for the full year was RMB 0.47 per share (including tax), with total dividends amounting to RMB 86.02 billion. The payout ratio was 54.7%. Over the past three years, cumulative dividends totaled RMB 122.08B.

Sinopec’s full-year dividend per share in 2025 was RMB 0.20 (including tax). Total dividends were RMB 165.18B. The total amount of share buybacks and cancellations for the year was RMB 252.57B. After including buybacks, the cash dividend ratio reached 81%, and the dividend payout ratio is the highest among the “Three Barrels of Oil.”

CNOOC’s full-year dividend per share in 2025 was HKD 1.28 (including tax). Total dividends were HKD 60.8 billion (about RMB 54.95 billion), and the payout ratio was 45%.

Institutions raise target prices

Since 2026, international crude oil prices have returned above $100 per barrel, driving up the share prices of the “Three Barrels of Oil.”

Due to factors such as the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have surged sharply over the past month. The market expects that high oil prices will strengthen the future upstream performance benefits, while increasing the differentiation pattern in which downstream faces pressure.

Driven by the strong performance of oil prices, multiple major global banks have raised their earnings forecasts and target prices for the “Three Barrels of Oil.”

A Goldman Sachs research report noted that over the past three years, CNOOC and China National Petroleum have shown strong cash-flow generation capabilities, with their rankings for cash returns on invested capital among global peers improving. Goldman Sachs raised CNOOC’s target price for its Hong Kong-listed shares to HKD 31, raised China National Petroleum’s target price for its A-shares to RMB 15.3, and raised its target price for its Hong Kong-listed shares to HKD 11.5.

JPMorgan analyst pointed out that more than 70% of CNOOC’s production is crude oil, making it most sensitive to changes in oil prices. Therefore, it raised its per-share earnings forecasts for CNOOC for 2026 and 2027 by 41% and 19%, respectively, and increased its target prices for CNOOC’s H shares and A shares to HKD 31 and RMB 47, respectively.

UBS also recently raised its 2025 earnings forecasts for the “Three Barrels of Oil,” increasing China National Petroleum, CNOOC, and Sinopec’s 2026 earnings forecasts by 13%, 16%, and 0.4%, respectively.