Everyone constantly says that tomorrow unlocks will happen and the price will drop or, conversely, soar. I've noticed for a long time that it rarely works that simply. The thing is, unlocks are not just a magic wand that automatically moves the quotes. You need to understand what is actually happening under the hood.

When we talk about unlocks, it means that early investors gain access to their coins that have been frozen since the time of investment. But here’s where it gets interesting. There are different schemes. Sometimes they simply allow selling a portion. Other times, like in Aptos or Flow, coins remain locked for years, but every few months, staking rewards are released. Each project comes up with its own approach.

Here's the point. The question isn't how the unlock will affect the price. The question is how the balance of supply and demand will change. This is a completely different perspective, and it provides understanding.

First, look at who owns these coins. If they are large funds, they might simply choose not to sell if the price doesn’t suit them. They are not obligated. It’s a completely different story if it’s a multitude of small investors. They are more likely to immediately dump their coins onto the market. Supply will jump, demand will stay the same, and the price could fall. But if there aren’t many small investors, then the funds will buy them up to shake out weak hands. The balance won’t change, and the price won’t move.

Often, before an unlock, media starts to hype up interest. Demand increases, and a pump occurs. Then the unlock happens. Funds start to unload because they like the price. Newcomers who bought during the hype begin to panic. The pump fades.

Unlocks are mechanics that need to be analyzed specifically. What price would be advantageous for funds to sell? Was there media hype before this? How many percent will enter the market? Who exactly holds these coins? Only then can conclusions be drawn.

An important point. Usually, all this just leads to local swings lasting a week or two. Not a serious turning point. And if you have long-term plans for the coin, unlocks are just noise that can be ignored. The main thing is not to panic at every headline but to understand the mechanics.