Oil is the true protagonist of this war.

"BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin published a lengthy article with a core point: oil is not a byproduct of the US-Iran war, but the driving force behind the war itself. The stock market, bonds, cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve policies, food prices—all of these are downstream results of oil prices. Understanding oil is key to understanding the entire market.
His assessment is more pessimistic and more specific than mainstream market views.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over five weeks, U.S. ground forces are gathering, with no clear path to victory and no signs of quick de-escalation. This war has long surpassed the expectations of a "surgical airstrike" and has evolved into a prolonged attrition war. Iran’s strategy has never been about winning but about making the war costly enough to force Washington to seek an exit.
And a prolonged attrition war aligns precisely with American interests—high oil prices push global buyers toward North American energy and stimulate domestic production.
Garrett Jin’s conclusion: the market has already priced in the war, but not its durability. Every oil price pullback is a buying opportunity. As ground forces become deeply entrenched and quick victory becomes impossible, oil prices will transmit through interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets.
Polymarket data confirms this uncertainty: the probability of a ceasefire before the end of this month is only 18%, 34% before the end of May, and 46% before the end of June.
More than half of the bets favor the war continuing beyond June.
This is not short-term volatility; it’s the beginning of a structural re-pricing.