【US Stock Futures】US Employment Improves, Dow Futures Slightly Down

Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets are closed for the holiday on Friday, but the market remains focused on employment data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate in the U.S. fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. New nonfarm payrolls surged by 178k jobs; however, 35k of them were because doctors returned to their workstations after the end of a doctors’ strike. Excluding this factor, there were still 143k new jobs. And in January, the figure was revised up to 160k; in February, it was revised down to 133k.

After Trump blew up an Iranian bridge, he threatened to blow up more infrastructure, while Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. facilities in Gulf countries.

Iran and Oman are drafting an agreement to “monitor” transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but there has been no further news. However, negotiations by each country with Iran have led some ships to be granted permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dow Jones futures fell by 103 points to 46,629. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% to 6,603. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% to 24,129.

$1 below is Thursday’s U.S. stock market news====

Concern over war escalation: NY oil jumps 11%, crossing the 111 level; Brent oil. Dow’s decline narrows to 61 points

U.S. President Trump said he would escalate the war. The market is focused on whether Hormuz will remain shut, affecting crude oil supply and pushing up oil prices. New York May crude oil futures jumped by more than 10%, rising above $111, the first time in recent years it has surpassed Brent.

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U.S. stocks had mixed performances on Thursday. The Dow’s decline narrowed, and by the close it had recouped more than 600 points of losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fluctuated but steadied. At the close, the Dow Jones was at 46,504, down 61 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.11%; and the Nasdaq rose 0.18%.

Market news indicated that Iran is drafting a passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and the market is focused on whether there will be Hormuz Strait transit fees. U.S. President Trump said he would hit Iran “extremely harshly,” dashing hopes of a short-term ceasefire in the Middle East.

New York crude oil futures surged as much as 13.83%, hitting a high of $113.97, and closed at $111.54, still up 11.4%. Brent crude oil futures rose 7.78% to close at $109.03.

On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that Phase 3 of the 90th round of military operations for “True Promise-4” has begun, carrying out strikes on the AWS cloud data center operated by Amazon, located in Bahrain.

Amazon’s shares fell as much as 2.7% at one point, and closed down 0.4%. Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries were about 358k electric vehicles, below expectations, and the stock price fell 5.4%.

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The Kremlin said that Russian President Putin discussed the Middle East crisis with Saudi Crown Prince. The two sides said that the Middle East situation has a negative impact on global energy security and emphasized the importance of Russia and Saudi working together under the “OPEC+” framework to stabilize the global oil market.

Gold prices fell 2.4%; New York gold futures were at $4,695.

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With concerns about the conflict continuing to build, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 100.02 temporarily. U.S. long-term bond yields turned lower; U.S. 10-year bond yields were temporarily at 4.311%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its annual U.S. assessment report, saying that the Fed will cut rates only once by year-end. The premise for implementing a larger-scale monetary easing policy is that the labor market outlook deteriorates significantly and inflation pressure does not increase.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that lowering reserve requirements is one of the ways to reduce the Fed’s balance-sheet size. The authorities can reduce banks’ demand for reserves through regulatory changes, thereby shrinking the balance sheet.

Australia’s National Australia Bank FX strategist Rodrigo Catril said Trump’s strategy of “escalate first, then de-escalate” is not without risk. Because the market seems to focus on the fact that the war is not over yet— the U.S. is seeking to escalate the situation, and hopes to force Iran into an agreement.

PacEast Asset Management in Switzerland said that the Middle East conflict and energy crisis cast a shadow over the outlook for global stock markets. Therefore, the firm has moved stock allocations back to their benchmark levels in most markets. Chinese stocks are an exception: supported by strong commodities inventories, sufficient alternative energy supply, and policy support, it remains optimistic. Emerging-market stocks have been cut back to neutral.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously being updated—see: next page

Intraday trend:

【18:10】Trump’s remarks increase market concern, Dow futures fall 483 points, Nasdaq futures fall 1.7%; Brent crude oil rebounds 7%, gold prices fall 3%

【14:00】Dow futures fall 555 points to 46,251; S&P futures fall 91 points to 6,526; Nasdaq futures fall 413 points or 1.7% to 23,781.

【14:00】Oil prices pull back: New York crude oil futures rise 5.1% to $105.24; Brent crude oil futures rise 6% to $107.23. Gold prices fall more than 3%: New York gold futures $4,659; spot gold $4,605.

【11:53】【Artemis II】Half a century later, back to the Moon: NASA’s Artemis 2 crewed rocket launches

【11:30】【Gold price trend】After Trump’s remarks, spot gold prices turn down 1%: “Basically describing the conflict as a military victory, not as a ceasefire statement”

【11:11】【U.S. stock market analysis】After Trump’s remarks, Dow futures fall 400 points. Analysis: Near-term hopes for a ceasefire could cool things off; not enough momentum for a mid-term rebound

【10:28】【Japanese yen trend】The yen trades at 4.91 versus the Hong Kong dollar; UBS warns: if oil supply disruptions persist, pushing oil prices higher, the yen could weaken to 175 versus the U.S. dollar by year-end

【09:56】【Iran crisis】Trump’s remarks: Achieved an overwhelming victory; the war is about to end; vows to hit them “extremely harshly,” sending them back to the Stone Age

【08:06】【AI】OpenAI “not good-smelling”? Billions of dollars of OpenAI shares in the secondary market have no buyers; $2 billion in cash is ready to invest in rival Anthropic

【06:57】【IPO new listing】SpaceX secretly submitted an IPO filing; valuation $1.75 trillion

【06:34】【Iran crisis】Before Trump’s speech, Iran’s president publishes an open letter questioning whether the war benefits Americans (updated continuously)

$1 below is April 1 U.S. stock market news====

Wednesday: Trump says Iran requested a ceasefire; Iran calls it fake news. The Dow rises 224 points, oil futures fall

In a post on the social platform Truth Social, Trump wrote, “The new government president of Iran is less radical than his predecessors, and much smarter. He just made a request to the United States for a ceasefire! We will consider this proposal, but the condition is that the Strait of Hormuz (Hormuz Strait) must remain open, free, and passable. Until then, we will continue to bomb Iran into destruction, or as people say, bomb them back to the Stone Age!!!” An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the statement Trump made about “the new Iranian government president requesting a ceasefire” is purely fabricated fake news.

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued an open letter to the American people on Wednesday, saying the Iranian people have no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring countries. He said the U.S. has amassed large military bases and military forces around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. Iran’s response—and will continue its response—is based on legitimate self-defense and restraint. It is absolutely not an effort to start a war or invade.

Iran’s state news agency IRIB, citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened to enemies because of “the absurd actions of the U.S. president.”

With markets anticipating that the Middle East war may end, the Dow’s rally widened to as much as 461 points. By the close, it was up 224 points, at 46,565. The S&P 500 was up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.16%.

Intel agreed to pay private equity firm Apollo $14.2 billion to buy back half of its interest in the Irish chip facilities, and the share price rose 8.8%. Micron (Micron) rose 8.9%.

New York crude oil futures fell as much as 4.8%, hitting a low of $96.5, and closed at $100.12, still down 1.24%. Brent crude oil futures fell 2.7% to close at $101.16. The market remains focused on the contents of Trump’s speech regarding the Iran war, delivered late Wednesday U.S. time.

Spot gold prices rose for four straight sessions, up as much as 2.69%, to $4,792.96.

U.S. March ADP employment (often called “mini nonfarm”) increased by 62k, beating expectations of 40k. For education and healthcare and construction, it rose by 58k and 30k respectively. Trade transportation and manufacturing fell by 58,000 and 11k respectively.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, in an interview with external media, said, “We have already seen two consecutive months of fairly solid job growth, but most of it came from the healthcare sector. This is the real focus. Healthcare is changing the labor market.”

In other areas, information services added 16k jobs, natural resources and mining contributed 11k, and leisure and hospitality added 7,000.

Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominated hiring, adding 85k jobs. Mid-sized companies lost 20k jobs. Large companies with more than 500 employees reduced by 4,000.

This marked the second straight month in which small businesses led the growth, Richardson said. This shift may be because the industry is “catching up fast,” and it is also affected by inflation—“and the second or third jobs that people need to cope with the current price levels may be coming from the small business sector.”

Wage growth for workers who stayed in their original positions held steady at 4.5%, while wages for “job hoppers” rose 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.

Trump will deliver a speech at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. in Hong Kong time on Thursday), providing the latest update on the Iran war.

Although hopes emerged for the war’s end, the head of the International Energy Agency said that due to the Middle East crisis, so far there has been a loss of more than 12 million barrels of oil supply per day. This crisis is more severe than the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 interruption of Russian natural gas supply combined. The expected April oil loss is twice that of March. The biggest issue right now is a shortage of aviation fuel and diesel, which has already affected Asia and is expected to affect Europe from April to May.

The International Energy Agency said it is considering releasing additional strategic reserves. “If we think there is demand for crude oil or refined products, we may intervene.” About 40 key energy assets in the Middle East region have been damaged.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously being updated—see: next page

Intraday trend:

【21:30】Dow opens higher by 338 points to 46,680; Nasdaq rises 0.8% to 21,769; S&P rises 42 points to 6,572.

【18:48】Dow futures rise 291 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.9%; S&P futures rise 43 points.

【14:30】Dow futures rise 210 points to 46,792; S&P futures rise 35 points to 6,606; Nasdaq futures rise 194 points or 0.8% to 24,109.

【14:30】Oil prices ease: New York crude oil futures fall 0.8% to $100.59; Brent crude oil futures fall 1.8% to $102.28. Gold prices keep rallying: New York gold futures rise 0.9% to $4,721; spot gold rises 0.8% to $4,703.

【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold briefly reclaimed $4,700: Analysis—high bond yields limit the upside room for gold; is the January high a “once-in-a-generation” historical high?

【13:17】【U.S. stock market analysis】Hope for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparks a surge in the Dow of more than 1,000 points: Analysis—if oil prices and bond yields keep moving lower, it reflects that the market believes more long-term in a ceasefire

【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic due to human error leaks internal source code for coding assistant Claude Code; 512k lines of code go viral

【10:23】【AI + layoffs】Oracle shares rise nearly 6%; reported global layoffs underway; thousands of employees expected to be affected

【10:05】【Gold price trend】Gold prices keep climbing; spot gold briefly breaks above the $4,700 level; hoping the Iran war may end

【09:00】【New listing IPO】SpaceX reportedly working with at least 21 banks to prepare for a listing under the code name “Project Apex”

【08:32】【NKE earnings】Nike shares fall 9% after hours; expects China market sales to drop 20%

【08:11】【Stock market legend Buffett】Buffett warns of fragile signs in the banking system; market panic could drive investors out—“even rushing out the door first is still beneficial”

【07:34】【AI + investing】OpenAI adds $12 billion to this round of funding; post-investment valuation rises to $852 billion

【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: Have reached the goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons; no agreement needed to withdraw troops; leave in two or three weeks (updated continuously)

$1 below is March 31 U.S. stock market news====

Tuesday: Iran’s president says it’s willing to end the war if it’s ensured there will be no further attacks. The Dow surges 1,125 points, and the Nasdaq rises 3.8%. Oil prices fall

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war if it can be ensured it will not be attacked again. U.S. President Trump is also reported to have sent ceasefire signals, indicating he intends to end military actions against Iran without the Strait of Hormuz having reopened yet. With hopes that both sides will deploy ceasefire arrangements, U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday, with the Dow’s gains briefly expanding to 1,167 points; oil prices fell instead.

At the close, the Dow rose 1,125 points to 46,341; the S&P 500 rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%.

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U.S. stocks: focus names saw continued rebounds in large-cap technology. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla (Tesla) rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) closed up 6.7%, announcing a $2 billion investment in chipmaker Marvell, pushing Marvell up 12.8%.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced that it would target companies and institutions associated with 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence companies.

U.S. President Trump posted on the social website Truth Social, saying, “To all those countries that can’t get aviation fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz—for example, the UK, which refused to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation’—I have a suggestion for you: first, buy from the U.S.; we have enough oil. Second, be brave and go to the Strait of Hormuz to seize it. You must start learning self-reliance. The U.S. will no longer help you the way it used to—just as you didn’t help us back then.”

He pointed out that, “Iran has basically already been destroyed. The hardest part is over.” He urged those “onlookers” to get oil themselves.

Foreign media reported that Trump told his aides that even if the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed, he is willing to end the U.S. military operations against Iran, raising hopes in the market that the conflict, which has lasted for a month, will come to an end.

New York crude oil closed down 1.46% to $101.38. Spot gold had risen as much as 3.9% to a high of $4,686.9.

The U.S. dollar index was slightly weaker, at 99.88 temporarily. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that it may not be necessary to raise rates in the near term; U.S. long-term bond yields have been steadily falling, with the 10-year yield at 4.321% temporarily.

On Tuesday, Russia’s ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media that Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran and is not in Russia receiving treatment as some rumors claim.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously being updated—see: next page

Intraday trend:

【20:55】Trump: Countries that haven’t helped the U.S. must learn to get oil themselves in the future. Dow futures rise 509 points, Nasdaq futures rise 0.8%; spot gold rises 1%

【18:00】Dow futures rise 407 points, Nasdaq futures rise 0.8%; spot gold rises 1%

【15:00】Dow futures rise 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures rise 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures rise 132 points or 0.6% to 23,272.

【15:00】Oil prices hold steady: New York crude oil futures rise 0.1% to $102.97; Brent crude oil futures rise 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices keep rallying: New York gold futures rise 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold rises 1.1% to $4,558.

【14:06】【U.S. stock market analysis】Powell suggests no rate hike in the near term. U.S. stocks rise first then give back: Analysis—rate-hike odds may have been overestimated; if fighting cools down in the short term, the S&P could return to 7,000

【12:08】【New listing IPO】Nasdaq rolls out “Fast Track Inclusion” rules, paving the way for unicorns like SpaceX to quickly advance to the Nasdaq 100 index

【10:48】【Gold price trend】Gold prices continue to rise by more than 1%: Powell eases rate-hike expectations, plus Trump allegedly is willing to end the conflict even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz

【08:03】【U.S. interest rates】Powell says long-term inflation expectations remain under control; emphasizes monetary policy is in a good position

$1 below is March 30 U.S. stock market news====

Monday: Iran’s parliament approves charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz. NY crude oil breaks above 100; Nasdaq turns lower by 0.7%; Dow rises 49 points, having been up as much as 459 points

Iran’s Islamic Parliament approved a bill on Monday to levy transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers may be charged fees as high as $2 million.

U.S. President Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran have made significant progress, but warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not restored for passage, the U.S. may attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. NY crude oil surged above 100, while the Nasdaq turned lower.

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U.S. stocks had mixed performances on Monday. After a strong open, the Dow’s gain widened to as much as 459 points, then briefly reversed and fell 109 points. At the close it was up 49 points, at 45,216. The S&P 500 gave back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.

New York crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88 and closed above the $100 level. Brent May crude oil closed up 0.18% at $112.78.

Activist investor Bill Ackman said the two major mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were sold off—pushing shares up 51% and 47%, respectively. U.S. aluminum shares were boosted by 8.2%.

In public remarks on Monday (the 30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war depends largely on how the conflict affects U.S. people’s inflation expectations. He pointed out that people often overlook any form of supply shock. But the key is to closely monitor inflation expectations. The Fed faces risks in both of its dual mandates, including maintaining price stability and achieving full employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is appropriate to maintain a wait-and-see stance, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve the 2% inflation target.

He also noted that, as is well known, the implementation of monetary policy has long-term and unstable lag effects. Therefore, by the time the effects of tightening monetary policy become apparent, the oil price shock may already be over, and the comments may imply that rate hikes are not necessarily needed in the short term.

On Monday, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying that the U.S. is seriously negotiating with a brand-new, more rational Iranian government to end military action in Iran. He also mentioned that negotiations have made significant progress, but if an agreement cannot be reached as soon as possible for any reason, and if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened immediately for commercial navigation, the U.S. will destroy and completely destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Halk Island, including all seawater desalination plants.

He further emphasized that the U.S. has deliberately avoided touching the above facilities, saying the action is in retaliation for Iran’s “terror rule” carried out for 47 years under the previous regime, during which it massacred and killed many U.S. soldiers and others.

However, the chairman of the executive board of Iran’s National Development Fund, Gasanfari, later refuted that Iran’s power plants are spread out and more numerous, reducing the likelihood of a full nationwide blackout. He said that if Iran’s power facilities are targeted, Iran will bring an overall blackout to the entire region, and said Iran’s armed forces have the capability to do so.

Gasanfari also said that countries supporting U.S. and Israeli actions will eventually have to pay a price for it—possibly in the form of damage to their own territory or future compensation for losses to Iran.

In an external media interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the global oil market has sufficient supply, with an increasing number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As time goes on, the U.S. will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz will achieve freedom of navigation, whether via U.S. escort or multi-country escorts.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that although tensions between the U.S. and Israel with Iran remain, Trump still tends to resolve the Iran issue through diplomatic channels. In the interview, he noted that the U.S. and Iran are still communicating indirectly through intermediaries, showing that despite the conflict, diplomatic channels remain open.

He also accused Iran’s leadership of using the country’s resources to support regional armed groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite militias, while also threatening neighboring countries. At the same time, he welcomed the Iranian leadership to change its political philosophy, saying the U.S. will “seize” any opportunity that could cause Iran to change its political direction.

There are signs that the situation in the Middle East may escalate. Oil prices continue to move higher. Brent May futures rose again by more than 2%, to $115.08 per barrel. June futures also rose to $107.71. New York crude oil broke above the $100 level to $101.81 per barrel, up 2.2%. Gold’s downtrend is contained; it is temporarily up 0.8% to $4,531.24 per ounce.

U.S. stocks rebounded at the open on Monday: the Dow rose 320 points to 45,487; the S&P rose 23 points to 6,392; the Nasdaq rose 31 points or 0.2% to 20,980. This week, the U.S. will release March ADP employment changes, the March ISM manufacturing index, March unemployment rate, and nonfarm employment data.

U.S. President Trump claims that Iran has “agreed” to most of the 15 demands for ending the war that the U.S. presented to Tehran, though it is still unclear whether both sides are actually negotiating.

Trump said, “They agreed to most of our points. How could they not do so?” He added, “We will also put forward some other demands.” However, he refused to disclose what concessions Iran has made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously being updated—see: next page

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Intraday trend:

【23:10】Powell says monetary policy has lag effects, hinting that a rate hike may not be needed in the near term. Oil jumps 2%; Dow rises 320 points

【21:30】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, we will blow up all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Oil jumps 2%; Dow rises 396 points

【19:55】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, we will blow up all of Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Oil jumps 2% again; Dow futures rise 244 points

【18:15】Dow futures rise 153 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.3%. Focus this week on Middle East developments plus nonfarm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms the death of the IRGC navy commander; denies any direct negotiations (updated continuously)

【13:26】Dow futures rise 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures rise 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures rise 22 points or nearly 0.1% to 23,351.

【13:26】NY crude oil futures rise 1.3% to $100.98; Brent futures rise 2.3% to $115.17. As for gold, it stabilizes; NY gold futures up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Lock in 2% inflation target; it’s too early to talk about rate hikes now; warns of risk to the U.S. financial system

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and take over Halk Island export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen trend】Jun Muramura warns it will take “bold action”; yen at 4.9 per Hong Kong dollar

【09:30】【Oil price trend】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, but the level of pain is only half of the peak of the 2007 crisis

【09:17】【Gold price trend】Gold prices recorded their first weekly rise since the outbreak of the Middle East war; then fell again this week

【08:33】【Iran crisis】Iran war escalates; oil prices move higher; stocks in Japan and South Korea experience “Black Monday” again

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil rises another 2%. Pakistan: In the coming days, hold U.S.-Iran talks; Iran allows 20 ships to pass through the strait; Trump is considering sending ground forces (updated continuously)

【07:30】U.S. President Trump says he has extended for 10 more days the strikes on Iran’s power plants. It has not eased the market’s worries; instead, concerns persist that a longer war will affect oil supply, intensifying the shock to the global economy. U.S. stocks fell last Friday: the Dow closed at 45,166, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; and the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

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U.S. stock market updates last week—see: 【U.S. stock close】Iran says nuclear facilities were hit; fears that the conflict may expand; Dow plunges 793 points; oil prices rise again; U.S. dollar stays above 100

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