April 4, 2026 Holiday Review: Hope comes after despair!

At the start of April is a real knockout. I feel that at this very moment, analyzing the market’s行情 just adds anxiety—but the fact is exactly like this. At the open, it went straight on the offensive into CPO, optical communications, optical chips, and so on. Actually, on the U.S. stock market tonight, Nvidia didn’t really go up much. But over here, at the open, on shrinking volume, the entire AI hardware complex was still pushed higher. DekoLi, Tengjing Technology, Hisense? Opto? Technology, Tongding? Technology, Longfei Optical Fiber, and M&A? Z? Chuang, and so on—basically the whole optical direction was rallying. When I replayed it, I judged whether the moves were reasonable by looking at the main forces’ past actions and the current situation! [Taoguba]

So for optical stuff, is this kind of surge today reasonable? I think it’s unreasonable. Because if there really were good news, then how big of a catalyst would be needed to support the entire sector to hold up like this on a volume-shrinking session? If it’s earnings, then Delmingli and Bwd? Storage-type stocks have already provided the answer. If it’s industry logic, then these stocks rising hasn’t been the first day either—since the first day they started rising, they were already talking about the logic, talking about future expectations. But the result is actually that they really went up. Then if we assume the market is right—if there is such a huge positive catalyst in this segment to support today’s optical sector opening sharply higher collectively and then later pulling back—what pulled back in the end were Yi Zhongtian and some more strong names like optical communications, light sources, optical modules, and the few relatively strong Google chain-related names. Then the question comes again: when a market’s strongest direction keeps going after the “highs” like this, while other directions are dropping so dead they can’t get any more dead, is it that in A-shares there’s only this one direction? Or is it that funds chose this direction and clustered into a group?

So today, many people brought up what happened back then with liquor and pharma. Back then, liquor and pharma saw the situation of funds being restricted from buying. That kind of tactic is熟的不能再熟—starvation marketing. This is the definition of Yi Zhongtian on the current tape. That’s basically the institutional side’s clustering/grouping. A lot of retail investors today are also saying: since this direction is up so well, why not buy into this direction? I think this isn’t something that’s only good for one or two days. If it were truly that good, then Zhongji Xuchuang wouldn’t have been gapping down or gapping up over those four days, bouncing back and forth. Who was that even aimed at? Purely from a hindsight perspective. This way of thinking is deadly!

Everything above is reasoning forward from logic. Then I reasoned backward from a technical angle. Take Hengtong Optic-Electric as an example. The best at the open should have been the optics sector. Logically, since funds chose to lift this direction, Hengtong Optic-Electric hit near limit up at 9:46. The sector also continuously provided strength. But Hengtong Optic-Electric kept not locking the limit. That’s a detail issue. After DekoLi hit limit up, it also repeatedly got炸板. Here you can understand it as: the index was too weak, dragged by the broader market—so then just continue following the main force’s actions to look.

Why did the main force accelerate at this point?
When thinking about problems, directly look at the result. From yesterday, Longfei Optical Fiber started being driven by quant—this is also a detail. These details are all planting hidden risks for what comes next. Then when it goes at the high end and accelerates, are things truly that good to the point that it deserves this? I don’t think so. In a normal phase of acceleration, it usually means the main force is preparing to start pulling the net in. Think about it—when it accelerates, what effect does it create? The main force’s opponent is retail investors. If retail investors watch it and don’t come down for a long time, what will they do? So this is related to why the market kept selling off one after another. The optical branch is the cover for CPO. Openly walking on the plank and quietly crossing Chencang—pressure everything else so that the market only has this beam of light left. Then everyone’s attention converges on this beam of light, and in the end it’s about finding the successor of light—
—Here I’d like to声明 first: my replay is only my personal reasoning and viewpoints, and does not constitute any stance whatsoever. Because within CPO there are the most people, making it easy to get sprayed. Even if CPO goes down, it’s still very slow. Every era has its era’s portfolio-supporting stocks: when the liquor era emerged, it was Kweichow Moutai; when the新能源 era emerged, it was CATL. This time is the same. So after Yi Zhongtian, it’s also going to be the创业板’s portfolio-supporting stock.

A normal market definitely isn’t like this. The broad rally in AI hardware indicates that the market does have money—but that money didn’t give a bit to the masses. In the early stage, what the main force emphasized was a “slow bull market,” but their thoughts and methods weren’t the same. And you can’t say it’s different—because the methods look too ugly. So in the later stage, the tape is either: those that dropped earlier stabilize, or those at the high end make up for losses. There will always be one side to correct. During that process, you then apply a new framework. Now the market sentiment and institutional rotation are in operation like this, which also causes when a theme comes out, it’s very easy to trigger an A-kill situation. This is the main force’s tactic, a “slow bull” tactic. So the method looks too ugly—because once retail chases in, they often only break even. Even if it comes back, it might be after a quarter; come and go once, and half a year is gone. But during that time, as long as retail can’t control position size well, sorry, even if it comes back, it’s only breaking even—there’s no such thing as making money.

On Thursday, what was active on the tape were mostly convertibles, the National Equities Exchange (NEEQ), new listings, and so on. Without a theme breaking out, even pharma itself had divergence—very few limit-up counts. Today not only had fewer limit-ups, but also had more limit-downs. What’s happening now is basically two things: either try-theming with first-limit-up new concepts, or just wait for the market to come down. In terms of the tape: either institutions push it, or bull traders push it. Retail investors don’t have dominance. If neither of the two does the work, then it has no meaning. So why do people say that when Yi Zhongtian and these things come out, it becomes meaningless? Because institutions worked, but did the wrong place. When bull traders see that funds are putting money into optics, they can use quant to ride the wave. For example: at the open, DekoLi itself was already gapped up. In the first 3 minutes, it reached 13%. At that point, when you enter—do you or don’t you? This is what retail picks as the strongest. If not, then did they pick Yuanjie Technology or Higuang? Opto? Technology instead? And at this level, is retail still planning to take a swing trade? I don’t think so. So the “meaning” isn’t there. It’s not that you can’t make money, the risk-reward ratio is just too low!

As for the连板 side, it basically feels like there are no living humans. One example: Jinyayao? Pharmaceutical advanced to a six-limit sequence. Everything else is a gap—there are only a few first-to-second or first-to-two and three. And Huaiyuan Communication was still a one-character daily limit. The number of first-limit-ups is only slightly more than last Friday: 36. But last Friday there were 24 limit-downs, and there were also three consecutive limit-down streaks. Here you don’t need to talk about “pre-holiday effect.” Liquidity is lacking. This scene didn’t start only this month—it’s been like this since after New Year. So first, puncture those people’s dreams who think it’s just a pre-holiday effect.

So the reason is basically: everyone’s been fooled too many times. Then the trading volume has been shrinking continuously. Last Friday’s volume was down to only 1.67T (yuan). Basically most people think that at this position, a “second leg” will be born. Every time we try to game that oversold rebound, we get slapped in the face. Then ask yourself: are we short of that day’s rebound? I don’t think so. What we lack is the environment and confidence. Those are the things we need to find right now!

The environment is basically theme continuity and whether funds are entering—meaning whether trading volume expands. On that basis, besides optics, everything else has just been falling and falling without stopping. Are the optics logic really that hard? I think storage chips already explained everything very well. If it’s not based on optics logic, then why did funds go into optics? Is it really just mimicking Moutai and CATL? I don’t think so either. It’s definitely institutions bunching up and forming a group. In the past, institutions ate this kind of亏. But now what’s being discussed is “grouping.” Grouping always has to falsify someone; otherwise it wouldn’t be grouping. So here it also echoes the previous forward reasoning: because it’s “because it’s lacking, therefore grouping.” What we want isn’t CPO coming down. What we want is that funds no longer get involved in optics, and then the market will be able to rebuild confidence. Market being good doesn’t mean CPO being bad—these two aren’t in opposition. This has never been the case. This is about breaking down that kind of grouping phenomenon, so that funds can re-establish confidence. Because the market’s volume has already been low enough. A “low volume sees a low price.” At this point, it definitely needs to wait for an event to happen—namely the “Iran conflict.” When I’m writing this replay, the U.S. is also starting its 48-hour window again. Coincidentally, it happens right around our open. So we’ll wait for this event to land. Like last Friday, many products were缩量 and fell hard. Unless they open high to relieve it, a缩量 selloff is still going to keep falling. That’s also why we reduced positions last week. If the event truly lands, then on Tuesday there won’t be enough to kill the move with volume. Tuesday’s late close should be a gaming opportunity, then we’ll look at the strongest sector intraday.

The stock market is like a practice that never ends. Some rush in, some exit mid-way, some get lost in ups and downs, and some settle and accumulate through endurance. Today in the comment section, someone said: the stock market isn’t short of people who work hard—what it lacks is people who keep working hard consistently. It isn’t short of people who make money—what it lacks is people who can steadily make money over the long term. Short-term effort may bring temporary gains; only long-term perseverance and clear-headedness can help you stand firm in a market full of shifting conditions and contradictions, and ultimately harvest real growth and wealth.

In the market, there is never a shortage of hardworking people. Some stay up late to study K-line走势, reading financial report data word by word; some travel between all kinds of investment seminars, crazily absorbing so-called “stock trading secrets”; some trade frequently, trying to capture every chance when prices rise and fall, wishing they could put all 24 hours a day into the stock market. These efforts are not insincere, but most of the time, they can’t deliver long-term returns. The reason is that this kind of effort is often temporary and utilitarian, like three minutes of heat. When the market pulls back, they get disheartened; when others are profitable, they blindly follow; and in the end, they burn out their energy in impatience and also miss the real opportunities.

Real effort is never a burst of passion for a moment. It’s day after day of accumulation and perseverance. Like those investors who are consistently profitable over the long run—they may not have amazing talent, but they have determination far beyond ordinary people. They don’t change their investment logic because of short-term ups and downs, and they don’t give up their persistence because of temporary losses. They learn every day, track industry dynamics, and replay their trade records—refining their investment system through each round of practice. They can endure loneliness; they don’t chase rallies or selloffs; they don’t greed for more or rush for quick gains; they always maintain rationality and restraint. This sustained effort isn’t blind spending—it’s in-depth cultivation with direction and a plan. Over time, it forms your own investment rhythm and helps you find your own path to survival in the market.

The charm of the stock market is that it never rejects every hardworking person, but it also never favors every impulsive person. In times when the market is good, even newcomers can make a fortune with luck. But the real test is always after the rally fades. When the market falls into a trough, those who made money with luck often cut their losses in panic and exit, spitting all profits back to the market. Meanwhile, those who steadily make money over the long term can keep confidence in the trough and stick to their investment principles. They understand that market fluctuations are the norm; a trough is never the end, it’s a chance to store power. By accumulating yourself in the trough, reflecting on what’s lacking, and waiting for the market to turn warm again, you can firmly seize opportunities when the opportunity comes and achieve compound growth.

If the trough tests your confidence, then the peak tests self-examination. When the market is boiling with enthusiasm and the money-making effect becomes obvious, many people get carried away by victory, forgetting risk and blindly increasing their investment, even going into overdrawing funds to chase higher returns. But the more like this you are, the more likely you are to fall into the market trap. Those investors who are consistently profitable over the long run keep a clear head when the trend is favorable. They periodically review their trading behavior, screen out potential risks, and take timely profit and cut losses. They don’t covet one moment of super profits, and they aren’t swept away by market frenzy. They know that after the peak, pullbacks often come along—only by maintaining a sense of respect and self-examining at all times can you protect hard-won gains and avoid ending in failure due to a moment of carelessness.

The stock market is never a quick battle. It’s a long war. It doesn’t test your one-time effort and luck, but your long-term perseverance and clear-headedness. One-time effort may help you earn a little money, and one-time luck may bring you surprises—but only by keeping at it can you continuously improve your investment ability. Only by staying rational can you stay profitable through market ups and downs.

May every brother be able to put aside impulsiveness, stick to the初心, not give up confidence in the trough, and not lose yourself in the peak. Let continuous effort pour out hope, use a clear head to deal with fluctuations, and in your practice of the stock market, harvest the stability and ease that belongs to you. As for the rest, see you on the Sunday night livestream at 8!

**Also, thank you to every brother who gave a like, rewarded, and kept the momentum going—your support keeps me calm and steady while pursuing my goals, helps me take another step forward, and also makes me feel the value of sharing knowledge. I will continue sharing more valuable content. Thank you for your support! And I also wish all brothers who do like/comment/share and a “three-in-one” (one-click three連) that your account will ride a long rainbow all the way this year! Thank you to the brothers who keep going and working hard @Qik1ng @My dog is called Guobao @Halfway Awakening @BOGUAN @Shiyuejiu @Tytm25 @Xiaobao1105 @Kindop @Flying Dragon in the Heavens Buy in and it goes up instantly **
**
Thank you to the students who rewarded for the list—thank you for your recognition (Top 1 big brother: @Cangdong Zuoshi) @Shiyangshi @Desert Camel @Dao Fa Zi Ran Ran Ye @A Feishan Lunjin @Helen99 @Yan Shisan d @A stock that can’t swim @Changlala @Xiaoping007 @Xiaobao1105 @Time-share Sky Albatross @Sanshuigao @Zifeiyu88 @Ziye de Yuanguang @Canaio Canfei @2233qiqiqibaqa @Xunmixin Lier @Li Beiyan @Nineteen Billion Girl’s Dream @My dog is called Guobao @Magic Scholar Seventeen @xyt110407 @Jiangyang **

If you think this article is useful to you, please support in the comment section with a reward, encouragement, a like, and one-click three连—thank you! The replay is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Note: the environment in the comment section needs to be maintained together—no profanity should appear in my “friend circle,” no fights between fans, etc. Disputes are allowed; with disagreements, there’s progress.