Wu Says This Week’s Macroeconomic Indicators and Analysis: Developments in the Iran Conflict, Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, US CPI and PCE

Compiled: GaryMa Wu Shuo Blockchain

Summary

Last week, the Iran conflict escalated, and U.S. nonfarm payroll employment data came in above expectations. This week, we will focus on the Iran conflict in particular; Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, along with the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data such as CPI and PCE.

Last Week’s Review

Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that, against the backdrop of the U.S. economy, risks to employment downside and risks to inflation upside are rising in parallel, and that different views within the Federal Reserve “were to be expected.” When discussing quantitative easing (QE), Powell said that when he took office as chair, he never anticipated that QE would need to be implemented, and said that whether QE will be activated again in the future depends on market conditions; he also hinted that if necessary, the Federal Reserve will continue to support the stability of the U.S. Treasury market.

In March, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage point from February’s 4.4%, and below market expectations (4.4%). That month, nonfarm payroll employment added 178,000 jobs, far above expectations, reflecting a rebound in the labor market, mainly driven by growth in the medical, construction, and leisure and tourism industries.

In March, U.S. ADP employment was 62,000, versus expectations of 40,000. The total number of jobs added in February was revised from 63,000 to 66,000.

A Japanese central bank review committee member: If the Iran war continues, consideration should be given to whether it is necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hikes.

Over the past week, the Iran conflict has evolved from limited military strikes into a high-intensity confrontation aimed at completely paralyzing national functions. The U.S.-Israeli coalition, through Operation “Howling Lion,” seized absolute air superiority, and shifted the focus of its strikes from air defense systems to the energy core and the defense industrial base. As the deadline for the “ultimatum” to open the Strait of Hormuz on April 6 approaches, Iran faces the ultimate choice between accepting ceasefire conditions or suffering the complete destruction of civilian infrastructure—this war is at a life-or-death turning point between moving toward full-scale escalation and diplomatic backtracking.

In March, China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, and the non-manufacturing PMI rose for the second consecutive month.

In March 2026, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 52.7, higher than February’s 52.4 and expectations of 52.5, reaching the highest level since August 2022, indicating that manufacturing activity has remained in expansion for two consecutive months.

In the week ending March 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 202,000, versus expectations of 212,000; the prior figure was revised from 210,000 to 211,000.

This Week’s Focus: Key Events & Indicators

April 06

Continue to focus on the Iran conflict; Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6

April 09

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting (02:00)

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 (in ten-thousands) (20:15)

U.S. February core PCE price index, year-over-year (20:30)

April 10

China’s March CPI, year-over-year (09:30)

U.S. March CPI, year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (20:30)