White pork: Prices slowly declined in March, with a slight increase at the low in April

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ZhuChuang Information’s pork market analyst, Ma Liyuan

【Intro】After the 2026 Spring Festival, terminal demand fell into the year’s lowest point. At this time, upstream livestock producers were pessimistic about the outlook and actively accelerated the release of hogs for slaughter. The market for chilled pork with a carcass price structure faced a supply surplus, and prices showed a steady downward trend. By the end of March, prices had hit the lowest level in many years. In April, demand gradually improved and the tight supply situation also eased. Prices may rise slightly from the low end, but the increase will be limited; over a long cycle, they remain at a relatively low level.

2. In March 2026, domestic chilled pork prices fell to historic lows

From Figure 1, it can be seen that in March 2026, domestic chilled pork prices continued their downward trend and the price level was low; the average price gradually approached the “11-yuan” threshold. According to ZhuChuang Information statistics, as of March 30, 2026, the average transaction price of chilled pork with fat thickness of 2.5–3.5 cm in China was 12.29 yuan per kilogram. Compared with the beginning of the month, it had fallen cumulatively by 11.26%, and compared with the beginning of the year, it had fallen cumulatively by 23.75%. During the month, pork prices kept setting historic lows in many years.

3. Upstream livestock producers actively accelerated slaughtering; terminal demand ran weak

There were two main reasons why in March 2026, domestic chilled pork prices fell to historic lows. First, upstream livestock producers actively accelerated slaughtering; raw-material supply was ample, and the increase in chilled pork was obvious. As shown in Figure 2, due to insufficient bullish expectations for the future, starting in December 2025, the livestock side began to reduce weight and bring hogs to slaughter actively. By February 2026, the post-slaughter average live weight of domestic hogs had fallen to a relatively low level. After the Spring Festival, the large hogs that had been held back earlier were released one after another. In addition, as temperatures rose, sales of chilled pork in larger specifications were not ideal, so livestock producers actively sent large hogs for slaughter, supporting a slight uptick in post-slaughter average weights. During the month, slaughtering and processing enterprises increased their cutting/portioning ratios, but the overall inventory intake volume was limited; chilled pork supply remained ample.

Second, it was the off-season for consumption, and fresh pork demand was fairly lackluster. The month after the Spring Festival is a traditional off-season for pork consumption, and within the industry there were insufficient bullish expectations for the outlook, so downstream customers’ procurement intentions were weak. Competition in wholesale markets was fierce, and orders from institutions, enterprises, and school cafeterias provided limited support to demand. Slaughtering enterprises generally found it hard to move single orders smoothly and instead resorted to lowering prices to push volume.

4. In April 2026, demand gradually picked up; prices may be adjusted upward slightly

On the supply side, based on estimates from upstream, April is a period when hog production capacity is released in a concentrated way, so raw-material supply remains fairly sufficient. Slaughtering enterprises continued to follow a strategy of stocking up on dips, and on top of that, some regions experienced “second-time feeding” (二育), which helped ease the situation of excess chilled pork supply.

On the demand side, from the seasonal pattern of pork consumption, in April, terminal demand improved compared with March, but it still remained at a relatively low level for the year. Sales difficulty for slaughtering enterprises still exists, but because profits from producing chilled pork were not good, there are also intentions to raise prices, which provides some support to pricing.

Taken together from the supply-demand situation, ZhuChuang Information expects that in April 2026, domestic chilled pork prices will likely rise from low levels, with a cumulative monthly increase of around 10%. Since prices at the start of the month were low, the average monthly price of chilled pork in April may decline year-on-year? (i.e., month-on-month), with the drop possibly in the range of 3%–5%.

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By the责任编辑: Li Tiemin