#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

The 4800 resistance level has been broken, what’s the next move for gold?

On April 15, after two consecutive days of decline, the international gold market rebounded, showing a pattern of “bottoming out and rising, with increased volatility.” As of the close, spot gold was at $4,820.19 per ounce, up slightly by 0.18% from the previous trading day, with the highest intraday price reaching the $4,850 per ounce mark and the lowest dropping to $4,750.7 per ounce, with a fluctuation of nearly $100, indicating intense market battles between bulls and bears.

(1) Short-term trend: oscillating and bottoming out, waiting for key variables to materialize

Looking ahead to the second half of April, the international gold market is expected to maintain a “broad range of fluctuations,” with a core trading range of $4,550 to $4,850 per ounce, and extreme volatility possibly reaching $4,400 to $4,950. Three key driving variables will dominate the short-term trend:
First is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on April 29. The market will closely watch the statement and dot plot changes; if a clearer rate cut signal is released, gold prices are likely to break through the $4,850 level and challenge $4,950 or even $5,000; if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, gold may once again test the support at $4,550.
Second is the US April core PCE inflation data. This data is an important reference for Fed monetary policy. If inflation comes in below expectations, it will reinforce expectations of rate cuts, benefiting gold prices; if inflation exceeds expectations, it will suppress gold’s upward movement.
Third is progress in Middle East geopolitical negotiations. If substantial breakthroughs are achieved, risk aversion sentiment will further cool down, and gold prices may decline; if negotiations break down or conflicts escalate, gold will likely see a safe-haven rally.

(2) Medium to long-term trend: bull market logic remains solid, pullbacks are opportunities to buy
From a medium to long-term perspective, the bullish logic of gold has not changed. First, expectations of Fed rate cuts still exist. As the US economy slows down, the likelihood of rate cuts within the year increases, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken. The decline in real yields on US Treasuries will provide core momentum for gold price increases. Second, global central banks continue to increase gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying surpassing 1,200 tons in 2025, reaching a record high, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026, providing solid support for gold prices. Finally, geopolitical risks persist long-term. Issues such as conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war are difficult to resolve in the short term, and gold’s safe-haven attribute will continue to be favored by the market.