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#BTC remains rangebound in a conventional #BearMarket, short-term bounce toward #TrueMarketMean $78K plausible but lacking meaningful momentum #shift 📉🔴. Two conditions needed for sustainable recovery, stabilization of #ShortTermHolder cost basis currently trending lower, and meaningful reduction in realized loss pressure from cycle-high buyers 💪. 7D SMA of LTH Realized Loss Volume above 4K $BTC daily since November 2025 reflects persistent capitulation. Cooldown toward 1K $BTC daily combined with price reclaiming $81.6K would confirm bear phase transitioning toward pre-bull recovery ⚡️🎯👀
#crypto