The US and Iran are gradually reaching a framework agreement to end the war, and reaching a permanent peace agreement before the end of May is highly likely.

Mars Finance News, April 15 — According to AXIOS, two U.S. officials said that the U.S.-Iran negotiation representatives made progress during meetings on Tuesday local time, and both sides are moving toward reaching a framework agreement to end the war. One U.S. official said that the Trump negotiating team (Vice President Vance, Middle East envoy Wittekoff, and Trump’s senior adviser Kushner) continues to stay on the phone with Iran and the mediators, exchanging draft documents, and is “close to the goal.” A third official said, “We want to reach an agreement, and some people in Iran also want it—the key is to get the entire Iranian government to agree.” Sources said that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended in order to negotiate details. “The details are complex; it can’t be done in two days,” one official said. Another official said the U.S. has not yet officially agreed to extend the ceasefire, and both sides are still maintaining ongoing contact.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of “a U.S.-Iran agreement on a permanent peace” is 27% before April 22, 42% before April 30, and 60% before May 31.