Looking at the CME data yesterday, the market is still waiting for the Fed's decision in the coming months. The probabilities are quite interesting, especially for March—there's only a 22.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while 77.3% of the market expects them to hold steady for now. So it seems the market is still somewhat pessimistic about a quick rate cut. But if we look at April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 36.2%, with a 58.1% chance of holding. There's also a 5.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut, although that's still a minority view. Most interestingly, by June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has increased to 50.2%—basically a 50-50 split between a cut or hold. So it appears the market is starting to prepare for the possibility that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates, but the timing remains uncertain. We'll just have to watch the inflation data developments in the coming months to confirm this trend.

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