Lately, I’ve been keeping a close eye on developments in global financial markets, and it’s definitely kind of interesting. Over here in Asia, trouble broke out first—Korean stocks plunged by 11% straight away, and Japan wasn’t doing much better, down 4%. It looks like the air of geopolitical tensions is getting heavier, but the deeper logic may not be that simple.

I’ve noticed a pattern: every time this kind of systemic selloff shows up globally, the playbook of American capital becomes especially clear. When U.S. stocks fall, Asian markets fall too, and in the crypto market there’s bloodshed everywhere—so where does the money go? Into U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. is shrinking its balance sheet while cutting interest rates; the dollar appreciates, and global assets get pushed down to bargain prices. Once the bottom-fishing is done and the fun is over, they expand the balance sheet again and print money—an ideal way to harvest. The Bank of Japan has also been adjusting its policy recently. Under this global trend of rate cuts, liquidity ultimately still funnels into the U.S. dollar.

To be honest, the five most expensive words in finance are “This time is different.” Every cycle is basically the same—just a new batch of retail investors, just a different story.

On the geopolitical front, many people are still using conventional thinking to look at the Iran issue, but the logic there is completely different—religious faith often outweighs national interests. People can starve to death, or die from illness, but faith can’t die. So this conflict may be much more complex than people think. Trump’s punch looks like it was meant to resolve things quickly, but it ended up dragging matters into a long-term standoff, and now it feels like they’re stuck in a situation they can’t easily get out of.

But for the crypto market, this could actually be an opportunity. The longer the war drags on, the more urgent it is for central banks to cut rates, and the more ample liquidity becomes. The signal from Japan to cut rates is already very clear, and major central banks around the world are all releasing expectations of easing. When the water comes, the boat floats.

Looking at Bitcoin’s performance, most of the recent rally has basically been fully given back. The price is hovering around 73.9K, down 1.35%. Ethereum isn’t doing much better either—around 2.34K, down 0.11%. Dogecoin is down even more, down 0.68%. From a technical perspective, the bottom support is still there, but the rebound’s strength is indeed a bit weak.

The question is whether there will be another round of adjustment in March. That depends on the stance of the Federal Reserve and how the global situation develops. If Japan accelerates its pace of rate cuts, and expectations for global liquidity easing are further reinforced, the crypto market may see new opportunities. But in the short term, risks and opportunities coexist.

Fellow retail investors—rather than obsessing over whether the sky will fall, it’s better to look more at the data and think more about the logic. Opportunities often show up in those moments when fear has swallowed everything.