I just noticed a pretty interesting market structure repeating itself. The last time it appeared was in mid-2024. Back then, BTC was fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000, and what was really notable was that the funding rate on derivatives exchanges started turning clearly negative. That means the short side was beginning to pay fees to the long side.

I remember that period very well. Market sentiment was extremely pessimistic. Spot trading slowed down, macro factors remained unstable, and most traders expected a deeper correction. But the interesting part is that this negative consensus actually created an imbalance. When too many people bet on a decline, the market enters a "crowded trade" situation — meaning the short positions are overly concentrated. And do you know what happens next? Just a small catalyst — spot inflows return, ETF inflows increase, or simply selling pressure dries up — prices suddenly surge due to a short squeeze.

The result? After that prolonged negative funding phase, Bitcoin skyrocketed above $100,000 within a few months. Not because of sudden news changes, but because the position structure itself forced the market to rebalance.

Now I’m observing the funding rate returning to a similar negative zone. Based on experience, when funding drops to such deep negative levels, it usually signals that short-term fear has peaked. This doesn’t guarantee an absolute bottom, but history shows a high probability of a local bottom forming. Prices may still fluctuate, even sweep more liquidity below, but the main question is: how many people are still willing to sell at the current level?

For me, this isn’t a time for excitement, but a time to observe the structure. And the current structure suggests one thing: the risk of upward movement is starting to outweigh the risk of decline.