I remember how in 2018, what would later be called one of the most serious trade conflicts of modern times began. The trade war between the US and China lasted more than two years – from July 2018 to August 2020. It all started quite simply: Americans imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese imports worth $34 billion, citing unfair trade practices. China, naturally, responded in kind.

Then it escalated further. In the first year, there were several rounds of escalation. In August 2018, additional tariffs of $16 billion were added, then in September, the US expanded sanctions to $200 billion. I remember the volatility in the markets – it was pure chaos. Trade volumes in the hundreds of billions, global supply chains in shock, uncertainty at its peak.

In 2019, tensions only intensified. Trump announced 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports. Markets reacted sharply. The S&P 500 started at 2,913 points in July 2018, then fell nearly 14% by October of the same year – down to 2,506 points. It then recovered, even reaching its maximum of 3,230 points in October 2019, despite the trade war between the US and China still ongoing.

Bitcoin also wasn’t left out. When the trade war began in July 2018, it traded around $6,600. As the conflict intensified, it dropped to $3,400 in December. I remember, this coincided with the crypto winter, so several factors were pressuring crypto at once. But then, in June 2019, Bitcoin sharply recovered to $12,000, even as the trade war continued to unfold.

By October 2019, it became clear that both sides were starting to look for a way out. They announced the first phase of the deal. In December, they reached an agreement that involved lowering tariffs. On January 15, 2020, they officially signed the Phase One Agreement – covering trade, intellectual property, and technology transfer.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, which overshadowed everything else. Bitcoin plummeted to $5,000 in March, and the S&P 500 fell to 2,584 points. But markets quickly recovered and even grew further, despite ongoing tariffs and the pandemic. By August 2020, both countries confirmed their commitment to implementing the agreement.

What’s interesting – the trade war lasted 782 days, caused serious damage to both economies, but both sides seem to have learned their lessons. It’s unlikely something similar will happen again soon. It was a tough lesson on how trade conflicts impact global markets and create waves of uncertainty felt everywhere – from stock indices to cryptocurrency prices.