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Yesterday I followed Mislav Matejka's analysis from JPMorgan on the decline we saw in the markets. Basically, the scenario is as follows: tensions in the Middle East caused a heavy sell-off in stocks, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 1.7% and the Nasdaq falling 1.1%. Many people panicked thinking that inflation would spike because of oil.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Matejka argues that these concerns don’t make much sense. The market is forgetting that there is an excess of oil out there, which could push prices downward. In other words, the narrative of runaway inflation doesn’t hold up as well as it seems at first glance.
For those with a 3 to 12-month horizon, this guy is suggesting something very practical: using these corrections as a buying opportunity. Yes, the conflict is unpredictable, but political pressures indicate that the situation shouldn’t last that long. So basically, it’s that old story of fear creating opportunity.
The question is: will most investors have the courage to buy into the market while panic is still in the air? Historically, these moments are when the best returns appear, but psychologically it’s complicated. Anyway, it’s worth watching how this unfolds in the coming days.