Unprecedented! Retail investors are strewn everywhere, while institutions are aggressively buying the dip—this bear market is in the middle of a total shake-up, a complete shift of the heavens and earth!

This round of market downturn is unlike any previous one. Those who have experienced several cycles can sense that unusual atmosphere in the air. The issue isn’t with the price charts; we’ve seen those trends before. What’s truly off is the community’s sentiment and the market structure.

In past winters, there was always a group of passionate people diligently building. Now, the discussion volume in crypto communities has significantly declined. Some market observers admit they’ve become “lazy” in this cycle, losing the motivation to test applications, study documentation, or seek new narratives like in previous cycles. I deeply resonate with this sense of fatigue.

A series of events over the past two years have made too many people victims. From September to December last year, millions of new wallets were created solely to trade tokens on a Meme coin platform. At that time, social media was flooded with screenshots of hundredfold or thousandfold returns, dragging retail investors into extreme FOMO. But the cold data told a different story: over 99% of these tokens’ values went to zero within 60 to 90 days. By March this year, only about 4% of the 1.37 million wallets trading on that platform made profits exceeding $500. Most people were doomed to lose from the start.

Then, on October 10th last year, a sharp price crash triggered over $20 billion in liquidations, involving 1.66 million traders. This was the largest single-day liquidation event in crypto history, even surpassing the collapses of $LUNA and FTX. Countless accounts went to zero, forcing many to exit permanently. I can’t blame them.

Retail investors in this cycle experienced a systemic harvest: high circulating market cap valuations at issuance, only 5% to 15% circulating supply; insiders selling immediately after launch; project teams ceasing involvement after token generation events; and continuous security incidents. In just the first half of last year, stolen funds reached $2.17 billion, exceeding the total for the previous year. The industry sentiment was overwhelmingly clear: “Everyone wants to steal my money.” Retail investors indeed exited.

But the market didn’t go completely vacant. Unlike previous cycles, this time there is strength supporting the bottom. Institutional funds have entered. In just last year, the US saw a net inflow of $31.77 billion into crypto spot ETFs. BlackRock bought $24.7 billion worth of Bitcoin. The annual capital inflow into spot ETFs for ETH increased nearly fourfold. Even amid 90% retail panic, net ETF inflows still frequently appear.

ETFs are just the tip of the iceberg. Widening the view: supported by giants like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, Canton Network processes over $9 trillion in tokenized real assets settlements each month. Stripe and Paradigm are developing dedicated payment chains. Figure has issued $22 billion in real loans on-chain and is expanding into auto loans. The total market cap of global stablecoins has reached $317 billion.

These are tangible business investments, not speculation. Such large institutions wouldn’t pour heavy money into a field with no potential. On-chain data confirms this power shift: in March this year, the Bitcoin balance on exchanges dropped to the lowest point in nearly two years. Of the Bitcoin flowing into exchanges, 64% came from the top ten wallets. The core narrative of this cycle is now clear: retail investors are losing, institutions are accumulating.

When retail investors return on a large scale someday, they will face a completely different market: one supported by institutional funds, settling trillions of dollars of real assets with stablecoins, and protocols surviving through product-market fit. The underlying logic of the industry has quietly changed.


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