Just caught this and honestly, it's worth paying attention to. Albert Edwards from Société Générale is sounding the alarm again - and this guy doesn't do hype, he does data-backed pessimism.

His main thesis? The bond market is basically screaming that inflation's about to get ugly. We're talking 1970s ugly. Yields are climbing (10-year hit 4.28% recently, up 32 bps since the Iran situation escalated), and Edwards sees this as a warning sign that nobody's taking seriously enough.

Here's what caught my attention: he's not just worried about short-term inflation spikes. He's pointing at structural issues - massive US fiscal deficits, political gridlock, geopolitical tensions - all of which are inherently inflationary. The bond market is already pricing in the risk. The question is whether equity investors are.

The inflation scenario Edwards is laying out is extreme but not impossible: year-over-year increases could hit 10-20%, which would match the worst of the 70s (peaked at 11% mid-decade, then spiked to 13% in 1980). If energy prices keep climbing because of the Iran situation, that trickles into everything else. We're looking at stagflation territory - high inflation, weak growth.

What's interesting is the disconnect. Stock markets are still near all-time highs. But the bond market? It's already in bear territory, with yields rising and prices falling. Edwards argues that when the bond market enters a prolonged bear phase, equities can't stay decoupled forever. If the Fed stays restrictive (market pricing 64% odds of unchanged rates by year-end), corporate costs stay high, and valuation multiples compress. He's even suggesting the S&P 500 could lose 25% of its value.

Edwards calls himself an "uber bear" for a reason - he's been cautious for years while everyone else rode the bull market. But his point here is hard to dismiss: the bond market is sending signals the stock market hasn't fully absorbed yet. If inflation really does resurface at 70s-level intensity, both markets face a much sharper correction than consensus expects.

Worth keeping on your radar, especially if you're holding equities.