The Middle East situation fluctuates again, combined with the release of tonight's non-farm payroll data, and institutions are holding a wait-and-see attitude toward gold in the short term.

Ask AI · How does the volatility in Middle East affairs affect short-term gold trading logic?

Affected by intense fluctuations in Middle East geopolitical tensions, international gold prices have recently shown a rollercoaster trend, with institutions paying attention to tonight’s non-farm data and worrying about escalation of Middle East conflicts over the weekend.

At midnight Beijing time on April 3, gold prices paused their four-day rally, with spot gold closing down 1.71% at $4,676.86 per ounce; COMEX gold futures fell 2.29%, remaining above $4,700.

On the news front, according to CCTV News on April 2, on April 1 local time, U.S. President Trump stated in a speech that stronger military strikes against Iran would be carried out in the coming weeks.

RuiDa Futures pointed out that the above statement clearly deviates from the previous market expectation of conflict easing, meaning that the Middle East situation is still unlikely to cool down in the short term, and the duration of the Iran war may be further extended. For the market, this divergence of expectations will prompt a retreat of the previous “conflict marginal easing” trading logic, with disruptions in oil supply, high energy prices, and re-inflation trades potentially heating up again, thereby continuing to support the dollar and inflation expectations, and suppressing short-term recovery space for precious metals.

Tosho Futures also expressed concern about the outlook for conflict in the Middle East, noting in their morning report on April 3 that the chaos in the Middle East has not been fully resolved, and there may be another wave of intense strikes around April 6. The market overall fluctuates sharply with the progress of the conflict, making trading more difficult, and gold has yet to stabilize. Most European and American markets are closed today, with non-farm data to be released tonight, and conflicts may escalate again over the weekend.

In addition to ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the market is also focused on tonight’s upcoming U.S. March non-farm employment report. RuiDa Futures analysis suggests that if this non-farm data continues to show substantial weakness, the market may revolve around “rising oil price center” and “weakening economic expectations,” triggering a stagflation trading cycle, during which gold prices could see a phased boost. However, in the short term, gold prices are still influenced by the dollar and crude oil prices, coupled with the Fed’s significantly lowered expectations for rate cuts this year, which puts clear pressure on precious metals to rise.

Overall, if the US-Iran situation continues its current tug-of-war and short-term ceasefire negotiations fail to make substantial progress, RuiDa Futures judges that market risk appetite and liquidity may remain under pressure, and gold prices could continue to consolidate cautiously. Investors are advised to stay on the sidelines in the short term, while considering appropriate dips for medium- and long-term positions. In terms of ranges, London gold is expected to operate between $4,000 and $4,800 per ounce, and London silver between $65 and $75 per ounce.

(Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)