Recently, Arthur Hayes released an interesting market analysis, pointing out that the current cryptocurrency market is in a "trading range" state lacking a clear trend. It seems that the fund he manages also hardly built any positions in the first quarter. In other words, the market is losing its sense of direction.

But what Arthur Hayes is focusing on are two major factors that will influence the future market trend. The first is the impact of AI on employment structures. This could have ripple effects across the entire economy, directly affecting inflation and economic growth. The second is geopolitical risks, especially the tense relations between the U.S. and Iran, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Rising uncertainty here could directly impact energy supplies.

Looking at Hayes' analysis, multiple scenarios are simultaneously present—such as an economic slowdown, energy supply shocks, and global inflation fluctuations. That’s probably why the market is in a wait-and-see mode. It seems that the future market direction will be determined by which of these factors materializes.