I just noticed that crude flow through the BTC pipeline has contracted significantly in the first quarter. According to circulating data, exports from Baku dropped to 6.2 million tons between January and March, which represents a nearly 10% decrease compared to last year. It’s an interesting move considering that this pipeline is practically the main artery for transporting Caspian oil to European markets.

What’s notable is that total transportation through Azerbaijan reached 8.1 million tons in that period, but the BTC moved 76.9% of that volume. Crude coming from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan also declined, from 1.15 to 1.09 million tons. Analysts mention that contamination issues in the crude have disrupted the normal transportation rhythm, which directly affects the availability of spot supplies for European refineries.

This is relevant because any recovery in the pipeline will impact regional crude price differentials. Meanwhile, the Caspian continues to face quality challenges that complicate matters even further.