Just caught something interesting on the XRP macro chart that's worth paying attention to right now. Egrag Crypto shared a long-term structure analysis showing a massive W formation that's been developing over years, and we're apparently at a critical inflection point.

So here's what the pattern looks like: the first leg is already done, the second leg just broke out, and now price is pulling back into what should be a retest zone. That zone sits around $1.6 to $1.8 area—classic behavior after a breakout. The current price around $1.43 means we're actually sitting pretty close to this structural support level, which is exactly what you'd want to see if this pattern holds.

The thing that caught my eye is how clean this structure is. Egrag's analysis shows a bullish hammer forming near the retest zone, which suggests buyers are actually defending this level. That's the kind of confluence that keeps patterns alive. If price holds here and reclaims the $2 level, that would move into what Egrag calls the confirmation phase. Above $2, the next major target sits at $3.3.

Now for the bigger picture—Egrag included a measured move projection that extends all the way to $22. But here's the reality check: the probability of that full move playing out is somewhere between 25-35%. More likely is a partial expansion into the $3-$8 range, which sits around 50-60% probability based on the structure. There's also a 10-15% chance of a deeper reset if support breaks.

What makes this interesting is that expansion scenarios have the highest probability right now. The structure is intact, support is holding, and if buyers keep defending these levels, we could see this pattern develop over the coming months. This is the kind of long-term setup where patience actually matters.