I recently saw a very interesting analysis from CICC about where we stand in the market right now. The situation in Iran has already lasted five weeks, and things are much more complicated than many initially thought, so don’t expect a sudden calm.

What we all wonder is: has the market already bottomed out, or is there more decline? To answer that, we need to look at three things: first, whether tensions are still escalating; second, whether prices are already reflecting the actual risk; and third, how that risk is distributed among different assets and industries.

My impression is that April is crucial. We need to see if what "in theory" affects financial markets is actually impacting real production. Because the truth is, there’s a gap between what’s happening on Wall Street and what’s happening in factories.

Regarding valuations, bonds, gold, and copper already reflect quite a bit of pessimism. But in stocks? There’s still room for pessimism to be priced in further. This is where smart strategy comes in: CICC suggests positioning in assets that have already absorbed the blow, maintaining what’s gained without chasing highs, and using low-volatility dividends as a cushion.

What I like about this approach is that it’s neither aggressive nor fearful. If you want to reduce risk, dividends are your friends right now. It’s not the time to seek spectacular gains, but to protect what you have while the market stabilizes. The key is to choose assets wisely because not everything moves the same way during geopolitical uncertainty.