Just caught UBS's take on Australia's inflation picture and it's pretty straightforward - they're expecting Q1 CPI to land around 5%, which basically locks in rate hikes for May and August. Even if things stabilize in the Middle East, the inflation pressure looks pretty sticky, so the Australia rate decision seems pretty much set at this point.

What's interesting is they're flagging that while the inflation hit could be immediate, the real damage to economic growth might drag on longer. So we're looking at a situation where Australia's central bank probably has to keep tightening even as growth slows down - classic policy dilemma. The May and August meetings are basically the windows where it happens.

Bottom line: Australia rate expectations just got more concrete. If Q1 CPI comes in as expected, the RBA's probably moving forward with those hikes. Worth watching how the broader market reacts to confirmed rate path.