Recently, some people have been using "rising stablecoin supply + ETF inflows" as solid evidence, but basically they are confusing correlation with causation. Off-chain funds coming in do not immediately push the market; they might just be shifting pockets waiting for opportunities or used for hedging. On-chain, it looks lively, but the market response may not match. Last week, I saw funding rates almost twist into a knot, and in the group, people were arguing whether it's a reversal or just continued bubble squeezing. I, for one, will follow the rules: reduce positions when needed, set stop-losses neatly but decisively... no bravado.