Iran's Enriched Uranium Disposal Stalemate: Uncertain Destination and Greater Transfer Challenges than Expected

On April 20, the issue of Iran’s enriched uranium became one of the core disagreements in the current US-Iran negotiations. In addition to the lack of consensus on the recipient at the political level, the actual transfer process also faces highly complex technical and security challenges. Reports indicate that potential recipients include the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Russia, or the United States, but Iran has clearly opposed the direct transfer of enriched uranium to the US, currently only agreeing to IAEA involvement in verification. Previously, Trump stated that Iran would transfer all of its high-enriched uranium stock, but this claim has been denied by Iran. Analysts point out that even if negotiations make progress, extracting and transporting nuclear materials from damaged nuclear facilities still poses significant challenges. Currently, some of Iran’s high-enriched uranium is stored in underground structures at facilities such as Isfahan and Natanz, which have been severely damaged in previous military strikes, with access routes buried and inspectors unable to enter the sites for months. Experts indicate that high-enriched uranium is typically stored in gaseous form in containers, and the transfer process must assess transportation safety, potentially requiring conversion to a more stable form, while also necessitating remote inspection and handling of damaged containers, making the overall operation complex and time-consuming. Although the US has successfully transferred high-enriched uranium in operations like the ‘Sapphire Project’, several former officials believe that the current situation in Iran is more complex in terms of geopolitical environment, extent of facility damage, and verification difficulties, potentially becoming one of the most challenging nuclear material transfer tasks in history. Additionally, the US is concerned that Iran may conceal some nuclear materials, and any future agreement will require a strict verification mechanism to ensure the integrity and transparency of the enriched uranium stock.