Just caught an interesting pattern in USD/TRY lately. So after that US-Iran tension spike, the Turkish Lira actually held up pretty well, and now it looks like the carry trade is making a real comeback there. ING's been tracking this, and apparently when things got shaky, traders had basically halved their long positions on the Lira. The CBT's forex reserves took a hit too—dropped from $210B down to around $161B during that period.

But here's what's catching my eye: investors are slowly getting back into Turkish Lira positions again. The geopolitical pressure eased, and that's given the central bank room to rebuild market confidence through better communication. It's that classic emerging market play—when risk-off mood fades, carry trade positioning starts flowing back in.

Looking at the technicals and what analysts are saying, USD/TRY is expected to drift toward 46.6 over the next couple of months. The whole setup feels like a textbook case of carry trade normalization. If the global outlook stays stable, we could see those long Lira positions rebuild gradually. Worth watching if you've got any exposure to EM currencies right now.