Looking at the geopolitical developments over the past few weeks, the rebound in the U.S. stock market has become quite an interesting development.

The major factor is that the U.S.-Iran war has entered its second half. The likelihood of negotiations at the table has increased, and President Trump has hinted at resuming talks within the next two days. Direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon have also begun, and it seems that all parties involved in the conflict are starting to look for an exit.

This decrease in geopolitical risk is significantly influencing investor sentiment. The U.S. stock market has recorded ten consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just a step away from all-time highs. Notably, software stocks have finally recovered. If upcoming tech earnings reports are strong, market enthusiasm could reignite once again.

Fundamentals are also supporting this trend. According to Reuters surveys, the first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to increase by 13.9% year-over-year, with annual profit growth reaching 19%, surpassing the pre-war forecast of 15%. Reasonable valuation levels and strong earnings outlooks have provided a good entry point for buying on dips.

However, concerns remain. The Nasdaq's decline is limited compared to April last year, and trading volume has not shown a clear increase. If the Federal Reserve does not signal a rate cut outlook or a dovish stance at its April 29 meeting, and if the index cannot reach new highs, there is a risk of a correction due to overheating.

Meanwhile, what about the crude oil market? Since the war began, international crude prices have responded most sensitively to geopolitical situations. The passage through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-war levels. According to the IEA’s monthly report, the global crude oil supply forecast for 2026 has been significantly revised downward, marking the largest supply disruption to date. Spot prices still remain above futures prices, indicating traders are expecting future oil prices to fall. However, prolonged high oil prices could pose risks to inflation and economic outlooks, so caution is needed.

The dollar index has fallen for seven consecutive days, dropping below the 200-day moving average. The decline in oil prices has contributed to the dollar’s weakness. In the short term, the index may fluctuate within the 98–100 range, but if Iran ultimately gains control of the Strait of Hormuz, the core of the petrodollar system could be shaken, leading to a risk of the index falling.

Regarding gold, the three-week rally and Tuesday’s strong bullish pattern suggest that the upward trend continues. As long as gold prices do not fall below 4730/65, a bullish stance can be maintained. Breaking through the 4900/20 level near the 50-day moving average could open the door to the 5000–5100 dollar area. The medium- to long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged.

In summary, the decline in geopolitical risks is putting the U.S. stock market in a recovery phase, but the direction could change significantly depending on the Fed’s policy decisions. At the same time, structural changes in oil supply and the weakness of the dollar index are supporting the rise in gold prices.