Currently, market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical conflicts. After Iran continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices on CME opened higher on Monday for WTI. By the close today, prices had risen to nearly $87. However, it was also reported today that although Iran is quite unhappy, they are still preparing to participate in the second round of negotiations with the United States on Tuesday. The main reason is still because Trump has imposed sanctions on Iranian ports.

When asked about the ceasefire cycle starting Thursday, Trump stated that there is only a very small chance of postponing the temporary ceasefire again. It’s unclear whether this is to pressure Iran and create urgency, but from my personal perspective, the probability of Trump TACO (Temporary Agreement/Ceasefire) this time remains high. If negotiations are not settled in a day, it will be very difficult for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened in a day.

Looking at current BTC data, Monday’s figures are quite good. Although there was some volatility over the weekend, it remained within normal levels, and overall buying pressure was not high. Trading volume was also decent, and investor sentiment is very stable. Thanks to Iran agreeing to talks on Monday, both the US stock market and BTC rebounded.

Trump’s TACO on Monday was okay, but if he really continues to escalate actions, the market could revert to pessimism, although I don’t think this is very likely.