Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: The main driver of the Euro line comes from its own supply and demand conditions, while geopolitics mainly affects the market’s sentiment premium for the upcoming peak season.

As geopolitical influences weaken, the European route is mainly driven by its own supply and demand conditions, with geopolitical factors primarily affecting market sentiment premiums for the upcoming peak season. Maersk’s quotes in the second half of April remained flat; previously, Maersk announced a May price increase letter, with the container spot rate rising to $3,500. There may be further price support expectations in Week 19. CMA online quotes for the first half of May ranged from $2,800 to $3,500 for large containers, while OOCL and ONE online quotes at the beginning of May for large containers were $3,000, both indicating announced price increases, with actual implementation to be verified. Based on historical seasonal patterns, cargo volume typically gradually returns from April to late July, with an upward trend in actual volume. The peak seasons for 2024 and 2025 are respectively expected to start in late April and late May. The turning point of the peak season is approaching, but current cargo volume has not entered the peak period. Shipping companies are supporting prices, but it is expected that freight rates will have difficulty showing significant increases, so attention should be paid to the arrival of the volume turning point. (Shenwan Hongyuan Futures)