Institution: The insurance industry continues to benefit from the trend of bank deposit relocations

Guoxin Securities believes that in 2025, the life insurance business will achieve steady growth driven by two factors—rapid growth in the bancassurance channel and the transformation of dividend insurance—resulting in a significant improvement in the value rate. On the asset side, listed insurance companies will proactively increase their allocation to equities, and equity capital gains will become the core driver of profit growth throughout the year, with the total investment return rate reaching the best level in recent years, or even the best level in history. Against the backdrop of the continued downward adjustment of the pre-set interest rate and the long-term normalization of a low-interest-rate environment, the insurance industry is accelerating its shift from traditional fixed-income products to floating-income products. It is expected that in 2025, the industry’s premium year-on-year growth rate will be approximately 8% to 10%, and NBV growth will be 28%.

Guosheng Securities believes that in the short term, affected by external factors such as the U.S.-Iran conflict, the A-share market will see a correction, which will exert some pressure on the insurance industry’s investment side. In the long term, the insurance industry will continue to benefit from the trend of deposits moving from banks. In 2025, the industry’s new business on the liability side and NBV growth are impressive. The 2026 “opening-of-the-year” campaign is expected to lay a solid foundation for full-year performance on the liability side, and the trend of improving conditions on the liability side is expected to continue.