This week the crypto market has been a bit chaotic, and I’ve noticed several noteworthy events stacking up.

First, let’s talk about market sentiment. Last week, when the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was just reached, Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose nicely, and ETF funds were flowing in. But this week, negotiations ran into problems again; talks between Iran and the US in Pakistan didn’t produce results, and Iran started charging tolls on oil tankers—an obvious move to test boundaries. The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, and this uncertainty will increase volatility, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets. By Sunday, Bitcoin had already dropped 0.5%, and many tokens gave back their gains—this might just be the beginning.

Another pressure comes from token unlocks. Several projects are unlocking tokens simultaneously this week. Cronos is releasing 1.78 billion CRO, which is only 14% of the total supply, with more still to come. Starknet, Sei, and Pump also have large-scale unlock plans, totaling over $20 million in value. In theory, token unlocks are bearish for prices, but the market has already adapted, and downward pressure isn’t as strong as before.

But what’s truly worth watching is the US PPI data. It’s set to be released on Tuesday. Economists forecast the headline PPI will jump from 3.4% in February to 4.2% in March, mainly driven by rising oil prices. Core PPI is expected to decrease from 3.9% to 3.7%, showing some improvement but still relatively high. Plus, CPI recently rose to 3.3%. The US is now caught in stagflation—economic growth at only 0.5% while inflation remains high—making life difficult for the Federal Reserve.

Interestingly, the US PPI report will directly influence the Fed’s policy expectations, which in turn will impact the entire crypto market. If inflation data comes in hotter than expected, it will reinforce rate hike expectations, which is definitely bearish for risk assets.

On the other hand, Hyperliquid might make a big move this week. Bitwise is preparing to launch the HYPE ETF, possibly as soon as this week. At the same time, Hyperliquid is rumored to implement the HIP-4 proposal to introduce a prediction market. If both happen, it could bring new trading volume and fee revenue, and token burns would increase. But whether these positives can offset the negative effects of geopolitical tensions and US PPI data depends on how the market reacts.

Overall, this week the market needs to digest three signals simultaneously: the instability in US-Iran relations, the supply pressure from token unlocks, and potential inflation expectations adjustments from US PPI. Short-term volatility could be quite high, so it’s advisable to keep an eye on real-time prices on Gate.