Goldman Sachs: é improvável que o mercado de ações dos EUA caia em um Bear Market

A Goldman Sachs strategists stated on September 10 that the U.S. stock market is unlikely to see a big dump of 20% or more, as the risk of an economic recession remains low. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. The Goldman research team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann indicated that although the stock market may drop before the end of the year due to mixed prospects for rising valuations, economic growth, and policy uncertainty, the likelihood of the stock market entering a bear market is small, as the U.S. economy is ‘supported’ to a certain extent by a ‘healthy private sector’. In addition, a historical analysis by the strategists shows that since the 1990s, the S&P 500 index has seen less frequent drops of over 20% due to prolonged business cycles, reduced macroeconomic volatility, and the ‘buffering’ of the Central Bank. They maintain a tactically neutral asset allocation but ‘moderately support a risk view’ over a 12-month period.