
Over the past week, global markets entered a risk-off phase, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions. Climbing US Treasury yields weighed on risk asset valuations. Gold and silver, after strong rallies, each saw corrections of more than 10%. The crypto market weakened in parallel, with BTC dropping below $70,000. Meanwhile, crude oil held firm amid expectations of potential supply shocks, and energy factors continued to disrupt the inflation outlook.
On the capital front, both BTC and ETH ETFs recorded net outflows, reflecting a slowdown in short-term capital inflows. Nevertheless, total AUM remained at elevated levels, as long-term allocation capital has not exited the market.
On-chain, DEX liquidity became increasingly concentrated in leading and highly efficient protocols, with Meteora’s rapid ascent reshaping trading dynamics. Marginal growth in stablecoin supply stemmed from protocol-based assets, and DeFi credit demand shifted primarily back to stablecoin arbitrage and capital turnover scenarios.
In the derivatives market, the funding rate remained negative, skew turned bearish again, and implied volatility stayed elevated—signaling that the market continues to price in uncertainty and downside risk.
This week, key macroeconomic data—including core PCE, GDP, and initial jobless claims—will set the tone for market pricing, while ongoing geopolitical developments and shifts in energy supply could further amplify market volatility.
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