Alibaba Qwen AI predicts: XRP will big pump 60% in three months, soaring to 4.20 USD.

As the market shifts from gold to a recovery in risk assets, XRP remains a favorite among retail investors. After Qwen AI, a subsidiary of Alibaba, performed excellently in the Alpha Arena trading competition, its price prediction for XRP has drawn attention. Qwen AI predicts that XRP will pump by 45% to 60% by early 2026, with a target price range of $3.80 to $4.20.

Why Qwen AI Suddenly Became the Focus of Retail Investors

Qwen AI is a large language model developed by Alibaba Cloud, which recently demonstrated impressive market analysis capabilities in the Alpha Arena trading competition. Alpha Arena is a platform focused on cryptocurrency trading competitions, with participants including professional traders, quantitative funds, and AI models. Qwen AI stood out in this competition, with its predictive accuracy and risk management capabilities recognized by the market, leading many traders to follow its views on mainstream coins.

Unlike traditional technical analysts, Qwen AI integrates multi-dimensional information such as on-chain data, market sentiment, macroeconomic indicators, and technical aspects to generate predictions through machine learning algorithms. This comprehensive analysis approach offers unique advantages in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. When asked about the trend prediction for XRP in the next three months, Qwen AI provided an extremely optimistic answer and elaborated on the logic behind it.

The predictions of Qwen AI are not based solely on a single indicator, but are built on a multi-level verification foundation. It first approaches from a technical perspective, analyzing price structure and momentum indicators; secondly, it assesses fundamental catalysts, such as ETF approval processes and changes in the regulatory environment; finally, it considers macro liquidity and seasonal factors. This structured analytical approach gives its predictions a higher degree of credibility.

XRP technical breakout at strong support of $2.20

(Source: Trading View)

From a technical perspective, XRP has rebounded perfectly after a recent plunge, successfully breaking through the strong support level of $2.20. This price level has undergone multiple tests in the past few weeks, with strong buying pressure triggered each time it was touched, indicating a significant concentration of chips and institutional buying support in that area. Breaking through and stabilizing at $2.20 means that the market has digested the previous selling pressure, and the bulls have regained control.

Qwen AI particularly pointed out that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 63, which is a key technical signal. An RSI above 50 indicates bullish momentum, and a reading of 63 shows strong upward momentum while not yet entering the overbought zone above 70, indicating that there is still room for price increases without immediately facing technical pullback pressure. Historical experience shows that XRP often continues to rise for weeks or even months when the RSI maintains in the range of 60 to 70.

More importantly, Qwen AI identified $2.85 as the next key resistance level. If this level can be broken, it will confirm the start of a new wave of strong upward trend. Around $2.85 is a zone of previous highs and a large concentration of historical transactions. Breaking this level will trigger technical buying and stop-loss orders, creating momentum for accelerated upward movement. From the current price (around $2.60) to $2.85, there is still about a 10% space, which is a key threshold that traders need to closely monitor in the short term.

Qwen AI's technical analysis also includes volume verification. Recently, the rebound of XRP has been accompanied by a steady increase in volume, which indicates the authenticity and sustainability of the buying pressure. If it breaks through $2.85 with increased volume, it will significantly enhance the validity of the breakout and pave the way for a target price of $3.80 to $4.20.

XRP ETF approval window opens in January 2026

(Source: Qwen AI)

Qwen AI regards the approval window for the XRP ETF as one of the most important catalysts. According to the approval process of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), several institutions' applications for the XRP spot ETF will face a critical decision window in January 2026. If the XRP ETF is approved, it will become the strongest catalyst needed to maintain a bullish trend.

The significance of the XRP ETF goes far beyond its surface value. First, it will provide a compliant and convenient investment channel for traditional financial institutions and individual investors in XRP. Many retirement funds, family offices, and wealth management institutions are unable to directly purchase cryptocurrencies due to compliance restrictions, but they can invest in regulated ETF products. This will open up a potential funding pool worth trillions of dollars.

Secondly, the approval of the ETF will be a significant shift in the SEC's regulatory stance towards XRP. For the past several years, the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC has been a Damocles sword hanging over XRP. Although Ripple achieved some victories in 2023, the approval of the ETF will be the clearest signal that the SEC officially acknowledges XRP does not belong to securities, which will completely eliminate regulatory concerns for investors.

After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024, it attracted billions of dollars in inflows, causing the price of Bitcoin to double within just a few months. Qwen AI believes that although the scale of the XRP ETF may not be as large as Bitcoin's, considering that XRP has a smaller market capitalization, an inflow of the same scale would have a greater price impact. If the XRP ETF is approved in January, it could attract billions of dollars in a matter of weeks, enough to push the price towards the $4.20 target.

Even if the ETF is not approved immediately in January, the proximity of the approval window itself will trigger speculative buying. Traders often position themselves weeks or even months in advance, betting on the emergence of good news. This market behavior of “buying the expectation, selling the fact” will continue to support XRP prices in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Clarity of Trump Administration Regulations Becomes a Key Driver

Qwen AI particularly emphasizes in its predictions that the regulatory clarity during the Trump administration is a key factor that investors have been waiting for for years. Trump himself expressed his supportive stance on the cryptocurrency industry multiple times during his campaign, promising to end the “Biden administration's war on cryptocurrencies” and establish a more friendly regulatory framework.

If the Trump administration fulfills its promises, it may take the following measures: replace the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler with a regulator friendly to cryptocurrency; clarify the legal status of cryptocurrency, distinguishing between security and non-security tokens; establish a dedicated cryptocurrency regulatory agency, rather than a dual oversight by the SEC and CFTC; and promote legislation to protect cryptocurrency innovation. These policy shifts will fundamentally change the regulatory environment for XRP, eliminating the uncertainty that has overshadowed the market for the past few years.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly stated that regulatory clarity is the biggest obstacle for XRP to realize its vision of a global payment network. Once the regulatory framework is clear, Ripple can collaborate more actively with banks and financial institutions to promote the application of XRP in cross-border payments. This fundamental improvement will provide long-term support for the price of XRP, rather than relying solely on speculative hype.

Dual Boost of Seasonal Factors and Fed Rate Cuts in Q4

Qwen AI's predictions also incorporate macroeconomic and seasonal factors. The fourth quarter has historically been one of the hottest periods in the cryptocurrency market, and this seasonal pattern is particularly evident during Bitcoin's halving. Historical data shows that from October to December, mainstream altcoins often see an average pump of over 50%, and this regularity provides statistical support for Qwen AI's prediction of 45% to 60%.

More importantly, there is a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, it will drive more liquidity into risk assets, especially altcoins. Lowering interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding cash and bonds, prompting investors to seek asset classes with higher returns. XRP, as one of the top ten mainstream cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, will directly benefit from this liquidity release.

Qwen AI's model integrates the Federal Reserve's interest rate path forecasts and performance data of XRP during historical rate cut cycles. The conclusion is that in a rate cut environment, XRP's average pump is significantly higher than in other periods. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 to 75 basis points again in the fourth quarter of 2025, it will inject strong momentum into the cryptocurrency market, supporting XRP to reach a target price of 3.80 to 4.20 USD.