Trump's Truth Social enters the prediction market, mainstreaming the hot track into a new phase.

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. ( announced plans to launch a prediction contract service on its Truth Social Social Web, allowing users to bet on various events ranging from political elections to changes in inflation rates. The initiative, named Truth Predict, will collaborate with Crypto.com Derivatives North America to provide betting services that include commodity prices and major sporting events. The service will begin preliminary testing “in the near future,” followed by a full rollout in the United States and eventually expanded globally. This move marks the social media company's formal entry into the rapidly rising prediction market space and further deepens its relationship with Crypto.com, although it may invite greater scrutiny from regulators.

Trump's New Strategy for Media: Entering the Prediction Market Using Retail Foundations

As the leading prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi set new records in trading volume, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. ) announced a significant business expansion plan – to enter the hot prediction market space.

According to a statement on Tuesday, Trump Media plans to offer prediction contracts on its Truth Social network, allowing users to bet on events such as political elections and changes in inflation rates. This service, called Truth Predict, will begin preliminary testing “in the near future.” This initiative is the latest attempt by Trump Media to monetize its large retail follower base. The huge appetite of investors for betting on real-world events has prompted financial giants like CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. to seek entry into this business.

( The goal and partners of Truth Predict

Truth Predict will not only allow users to bet on political and economic events but will also launch betting on commodity prices and events from all major sports leagues. This service will be fully launched in the United States after the testing phase and will eventually be promoted to the global market.

Trump Media CEO and former Republican Congressman Devin Nunes stated in a statement: “For a long time, global elites have tightly controlled these markets — with Truth Predict, we will achieve the democratization of information and empower ordinary Americans to utilize collective intelligence to translate freedom of speech into actionable foresight.”

Truth Predict will utilize Crypto.com Derivatives North America to implement prediction betting, further deepening the cooperation between this digital asset exchange and Trump Media. In August of this year, Trump Media agreed to establish a crypto vault company with Crypto.com for the purpose of purchasing and holding CRO tokens.

) Crypto.com and Trump's political economy relationship

Mainstream CEX CEO Kris Marszalek has been dedicated to establishing connections with President Trump and his businesses. After Trump won the election last year, Marszalek was one of the first cryptocurrency executives to visit Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate, and the company also donated $1 million to Trump's inauguration committee. Subsequently, its parent company donated $10 million to the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc.

This close relationship brought about tangible regulatory benefits. In October 2024, Crypto.com filed a lawsuit against the SEC after receiving a Wells Notice. However, two months later, after Trump was elected, Crypto.com withdrew the lawsuit. Subsequently, the SEC concluded its investigation in March 2025 and did not take any enforcement action.

Regulatory uncertainty and intensified market competition

Trump's media ventures into the prediction market are part of a deeper connection between companies related to President Trump’s family and the crypto industry. Since returning to politics, Trump has pushed for stablecoin legislation and appointed individuals who support digital assets to key regulatory positions.

The competition in the prediction market domain is fierce, with the largest platform Polymarket using blockchain technology for betting, while Kalshi does not. The explosive demand in the market has driven the valuations of these two companies: According to a report by Bloomberg last week, Polymarket is seeking funding at a valuation of up to $15 billion, while Kalshi is also negotiating a funding valuation exceeding $10 billion.

Despite its growing popularity, the prediction market still faces high regulatory uncertainty in the United States. On Monday, Kalshi sued the New York State Gaming Commission, claiming that the state agency's attempt to regulate sports betting, which should be entirely under federal jurisdiction, constitutes overreach. This lawsuit further intensifies the debate over the legality of prediction markets, especially in the context of sports betting, which state governments have long considered their regulatory territory.

It is worth mentioning that President Trump's eldest son Donald Trump Jr. is a board member of Trump Media. Earlier this year, he also served as an advisor for both Kalshi and Polymarket, and he is a partner at the investment firm 1789 Capital, which also holds shares in Polymarket.

Conclusion

Trump Media's launch of Truth Predict marks a new phase in the mainstreaming of prediction markets, clearly demonstrating the Trump family's intent to leverage their political and retail influence to deepen their business presence in the field of cryptocurrency innovation. The deepening collaboration with Crypto.com is not only a commercial synergy but also a strategic alliance in the regulatory game. Although prediction markets offer the potential for democratized information and collective wisdom, the blurred lines with sports betting, along with the enormous capital involved and political sensitivities, will undoubtedly make it a focal point of interest for U.S. regulators and state governments in the future.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.