Is the crypto market performing the best in the last two months of this year? Should I charge in now or run away?

In October, the crypto market picked up, ETF funds flowed in, institutions re-entered the market, and expectations of interest rate cuts heated up. Top analysts believe the four-year cycle is dead and the liquidity cycle will dominate the future. (Synopsis: When gold led the rise, why did we still firmly allocate to Bitcoin?) (Background added: Standard Chartered: Bitcoin may 'never' return below $100,000, four major forces support BTC) As October draws to a close, the crypto market seems to have some upward trend. Over the past two months, the word “cautious” has almost become the leitmotif of the crypto market, especially after the 1011 plunge. The impact of this plunge has slowly passed, and market sentiment does not seem to continue to deteriorate, but instead there is new hope. Since the end of the month, some signs of growth have gradually emerged: net inflows have turned positive, altcoin ETFs have been approved in batches, and interest rate cut expectations have warmed up. ETF funds return, institutions get back on board The brightest data in October comes from ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs accumulated net inflows of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing the $1.23 billion outflow trend in September. AUM has reached $178.2 billion, or 6.8% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. In the week of October 20-27 alone, $446 million in new money poured in, of which BlackRock's IBIT alone had $324 million, and its holdings now exceed 800,000 BTC. For traditional financial markets, ETF inflows are the most direct bullish indicator – it's more honest than the heat on social media and more real than candlestick charts. What's more, this rally really has an “institutional flavor”. Morgan Stanley has opened BTC and ETH allocations to all wealth management clients; J.P. Morgan allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral for loans; According to the latest data, the average crypto asset allocation ratio of institutions has risen to 5%, a record high. Moreover, 85% of institutions say they have allocated or plan to allocate crypto assets. Although compared to Bitcoin spot ETFs, Ethereum ETFs pale in comparison. The cumulative net outflow in October was $555 million, the first consecutive net outflow since April this year, mainly from Fidelity and BlackRock's ETH funds. But it also seems to be a new signal, meaning that money is rotating away from ETH to BTC and SOL, which have more upside, or in preparation for new ETFs. A large number of altcoin ETFs came On October 28, the first altcoin ETFs in the United States were officially launched, covering three projects: Solana, Litecoin and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale launched SOL ETFs, and Canary Capital's LTC and HBAR ETFs were approved to trade on Nasdaq. But this is just the beginning. A further 155 altcoin ETFs are reportedly awaiting approval, covering 35 mainstream assets, with a total size expected to exceed the initial inflows of the first two rounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. If all are released, the market may usher in an unprecedented “liquidity shockwave”. Historically, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has allowed inflows to accumulate more than $50 billion, and Ethereum ETFs have also brought in $25 billion in asset increments. ETFs are not just a financial product, but more like an “entry channel” for funds. When this channel expands from BTC, ETH to altcoins such as SOL, XRP, LINK, AVAX, etc., the valuation system of the entire market is repriced. Institutional interest in crypto assets is growing. In addition, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, tracking 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and more; REX-Osprey's 21-Asset ETF goes a step further, allowing holders to earn staking returns on tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, TAO, and more. Of the ETFs tracking Solana alone, 23 are awaiting approval. This dense layout is almost equivalent to a public announcement that the risk curve of institutions is extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecosystem. From a macro perspective, this liquidity expansion has great potential. As of October 2025, the total global stablecoin market cap is close to $300 billion. This “liquidity reserve”, once activated by an ETF, creates a strong multiplier effect. In the case of Bitcoin ETFs, for every $1 that flows into the ETF, it eventually amplifies the growth in market capitalization several times. If the same logic is replicated in copycat ETFs, tens of billions of dollars of new capital could propel the entire DeFi ecosystem back to prosperity. The wind of interest rate cuts has once again blown new liquidity In addition to ETFs, another factor that changes the market comes from the clichéd macro level. On October 29, there is a 98.3% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. The market seems to have priced in this expectation in advance, the dollar index weakened, risk assets strengthened collectively, and bitcoin broke through $114,900. What does a rate cut mean? It means that the money has to be re-exported. In 2025, when the traditional market is generally unimaginative, crypto has become that “still telling stories” place. What's more interesting is that this round of benefits comes not only from the market, but also from policy. On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig, a former crypto lawyer who has traditionally been friendly, to become chairman of the CFTC; The SEC has also updated its ETP creation mechanism to allow crypto ETFs to be redeemed in place, greatly simplifying operations. On the topic of “regulation-friendly”, the US market has not just let go, but opened its doors. Instead of suppressing innovation, the government is trying to make the crypto industry “compliant.” The numbers on the chain confirm all this in tandem. Total DeFi lock-up (TVL) grew 3.48% in October to $157.5 billion. Among them, the Ethereum chain TVL reached $88.6 billion, an increase of 4%; Solana up 7%; BSC increased by 15%. This represents not only the “return of funds”, but also the return of trust. Coupled with the fact that the total amount of open interest in Bitcoin futures rose to $53.7 billion, the funding rate is positive, indicating that bulls are dominating the market. Whale wallets are also adding to their positions, with big players buying $350 million in BTC in 5 hours. In the secondary market, Uniswap's monthly trading volume exceeded $161 billion, Raydium exceeded $20 billion, and the activity of the ecosystem continued to rise. These on-chain indicators constitute the hardest evidence of bulls: funds are moving, positions are increasing, and transactions are hot. Why are top analysts bullish? In a blog post on Thursday titled “Long Live the King,” Arthur Hayes wrote that while some cryptocurrency traders expect bitcoin to peak its cycle soon and plummet next year, he thinks things will be different this time. His core point is that the “four-year cycle” of bitcoin has expired, because it is never the “halving” that really determines the market…