The interest rate cut this time is a certainty before the FOMC statement, with an 85.4% probability of another rate cut in December.

On October 30, according to CME “Fed Watch”: the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 97.8%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 2.2%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate until December is 0.3%, with a cumulative probability of cutting by 25 basis points at 14.3%, and a cumulative probability of cutting by 50 basis points at 85.4%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate until January next year is 0.1%, with a cumulative probability of cutting by 25 basis points at 7.5%, a cumulative probability of cutting by 50 basis points at 50.8%, and a cumulative probability of cutting by 75 basis points at 41.6%.