Elon Musk says the new Grok model will be released this year, with only a 23% probability of release within the year.

BlockBeats News, December 15 — According to PolyBeats, Elon Musk posted on December 7 stating that Grok 4.20 would be released within 3 to 4 weeks, and then on the 10th, he confirmed again that Grok 4.20 would be released within three weeks, sparking market discussions about the exact release date of Grok 4.20 and the series of questions such as “Will Grok 4.20 be released before X month X day?” Based on Musk’s tweets, Grok 4.20 should be released before December 31, but currently, the probability of it being released before December 31 is only 23%. Considering the potential slowdown of the engineering team due to Christmas and New Year holidays, the market generally believes that the likelihood of release before the end of the year is low. Currently, the probabilities for three other date points are: January 15 at 75%, January 31 at 83%, and April 20 at 96%.