Ripple (XRP), attention is on breaking through $1.40 amid potential short squeeze.

XRP is currently trading at $1.36 on March 27, 2026, facing downward pressure after a recent 15% drop from $1.60. Open interest exceeds $930 million, with $314 million concentrated in short positions, indicating a potential for a short squeeze.

Breaking through $1.40 will signal a surge

Currently, XRP is trading around $1.36, below the $1.40 resistance level and the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA). While support around $1.35-$1.3358 holds, a break above the $1.375-$1.405 range could trigger a large-scale short position liquidation. If the support level fails, a drop to $1.30 is possible.

From a mid-term perspective, XRP is trading above the February 28 low of $1.2710 but has failed to reclaim the March 17 high of $1.6061. The trading volume in the last 24 hours has increased by 42.9% compared to the previous day but has decreased by 6.93% on a weekly basis.

Institutional tokenization adoption rate determines year-end price

The price outlook for XRP by the end of 2026 is expected to depend on the pace of institutional adoption of tokenization. If adoption is slow, a rise to $3.80 is expected; with moderate adoption, the forecast is $4.50; if large institutions like Goldman Sachs actively participate, it could rise to $5.20.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently discussed Ripple’s growth strategy, policy, and regulatory outlook, emphasizing that regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC will have a positive impact.

Accelerated entry into the mainstream institutional market after settling with the SEC

After reaching a $125 million settlement with the SEC, XRP has been classified as a digital commodity. This has positively impacted Ripple’s market expansion and partnerships. Bitwise reports that inquiries from institutional investors regarding XRP have tripled, and Australia has approved a stablecoin based on the XRP Ledger, which will enhance on-chain activity.

However, as large holders transfer XRP to exchanges, selling pressure is increasing. XRP’s market capitalization is approximately $81.8 billion, with a fully diluted market cap of about $133.3 billion.

Short squeeze vs further decline, XRP faces a crossroads

XRP is currently at a critical turning point in both technical analysis and fundamentals. Over $9 billion in open interest reflects heightened market attention, particularly the $314 million in short positions, which could become a catalyst for a surge if resistance is broken.

A break above $1.40 may serve as a psychological momentum shift, while a collapse of the $1.35 support level could lead to further adjustments to $1.30. Ripple’s integration into the mainstream institutional market and the expansion of the tokenization market are long-term positive signals. However, the selling pressure from whales and macroeconomic uncertainties remain influencing factors. The 24-hour change rate is -2.46%, and the 30-day change rate is -6.80%, indicating a corrective trend. Investors should monitor changes in trading volume and the testing of resistance levels.

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