1.24 Midday Market Analysis.
This week, the crypto market has been under pressure due to a confluence of negative factors including US-EU trade tensions, weakening rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions. Uncertainty triggered by Trump’s policies has become the main negative driver. The downward revision of Fed rate cut expectations has further suppressed liquidity. Fiscal stimulus has only provided a slight bottom support and failed to reverse the market downtrend. Previously, the rate cut expectations driven by CPI and non-farm payroll data were fully priced in. BTC shows high beta risk aversion characteristics, correlating with US stocks but with larger declines.
Next week, the market will focus on retail sales, PPI, and initial jobless claims data. If the data are generally soft, it will reinforce short-term rate cut expectations, which is positive for BTC to test 100k; otherwise, the negative trend may continue. The FOMC rate decision and Powell’s press conference on January 27-28 will be key events determining short-term market direction. Today, Saturday, trading may be very slow.
BTC Trading Advice: Enter short positions around 90,000, with take profit at 89,600-89,200 and stop loss at 90,800.
ETH Trading Advice: Enter short positions around 2,980, with take profit at 2,960-2,940 and stop loss at 3,020.