The U.S. stablecoin "GENIUS Act" is steadily advancing, BTC sets a new historical high | Hotcoin Research Market Insights

Author: Hotcoin Research

Cryptocurrency market performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, or $2.06 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $245.9 billion, with a recent increase of 1.1% over the last 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 62.26%.

This week, the price of BTC showed a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $110,915; ETH also showed a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $2,670.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a small portion has fallen, including: DOG with a 7-day increase of 54.14%, MOO DENG with a 7-day increase of 40.66%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 33.48%, and WLD with a 7-day increase of 32.44%.

This week, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States: $2.75 billion; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States: $247.7 million.

The “Fear & Greed Index” on May 23rd was 76 (the index is higher than last week), this week’s sentiment: 7 days of greed.

Market forecast:

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, and spot ETFs of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the United States saw large inflows, which was the largest week of inflows since January. BTC broke through an all-time high of $111,313 from $103,520, up 4.37% in seven days. The RSI index is neutral at 44.88, and the altcoin seasonal index is 18. The market is still in a greedy mood. On Friday, the market gradually recovered after a brief decline due to Trump’s remarks that “it is proposed to impose 50% tariffs on EU products from June 1st”, and the weekend is generally a quiet trading period, and the correction now looks normal.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June is only 5.3%, which is lower than last week, and only 1-2 rate cuts are expected this year. But this week’s steady progress in the US stablecoin “GENIUS Act” has given the market a booster, and crypto czar David Sacks said in an interview with CNBC that the GENIUS stablecoin bill, if passed, will bring trillions of dollars of demand to US Treasury bonds. He expects the stablecoin market to quickly expand from the current $200 billion (unregulated) to trillions after the bill provides a legal framework, and Tether already holds nearly $120 billion in U.S. debt, surpassing Germany as the 19th largest holder. The passage of stablecoins will be the time for another carnival of this bull market.

Understand now

Review of the week’s major events

1. On May 19, on-chain data analyst Murphy published an analysis of BTC’s concentration of holdings. From May 7 to May 14, BTC’s concentration of holdings dropped from a high of 15.5% to 8.2% in just 7 days. This indicates that as the price has risen, it has gradually moved away from the concentration zone. If the concentration curve continues to decline, it is likely that the price will continue to rise.

On May 20, according to The Block, Anza, a development studio spun off from Solana Labs, announced their plan, which they call “the biggest transformation of the Solana core protocol in history.” According to the announcement, this high-throughput Layer 1 blockchain will welcome a newly designed underlying architecture called Alpenglow;

On May 20, FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that the U.S. Senate voted to pass a “cloture motion” to formally consider the “GENIUS Act,” with at least 15 Democratic senators changing their positions to vote in favor, including Cortez Masto, Adam Schiff, Mark Warner, and others. The bill will now move into full consideration; so far, only the “cloture motion” has been passed, and the bill itself has not yet passed. The “GENIUS Act” will next enter the debate and amendment phase in the Senate.

4. On May 20, according to official news, Jupiter announced that it has fully aggregated the time tokenization platform time.fun for trading. The time.fun platform supports the buying and selling of time from creators, influencers, and experts, and all tokens can be traded instantly on Jupiter.

5. On May 20th, according to official news, the Farcaster verification feature is about to launch. Account verification can be completed by connecting two social accounts (X, phone number, or GitHub) and holding at least 25 dollars in the wallet.

On May 20, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that the amount of Bitcoin held by BlackRock is second only to Satoshi Nakamoto, currently reaching 57% of the total supply. According to current trends, BlackRock is expected to become the world’s largest Bitcoin holder by the end of next summer.

On May 20, Robinhood submitted a 42-page proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), recommending the establishment of a federal-level “RWA tokenization” framework aimed at modernizing the U.S. securities market.

8. On May 22, according to 8marketcap data, Bitcoin surpassed Amazon to become the fifth largest asset by market capitalization in the world.

9. On May 22, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the stablecoin “GENIUS Act” passed the debate motion with a result of 69 votes in favor and 31 votes against, entering the amendment process;

10. On May 22, according to Lookonchain monitoring, Cetus suffered a hacker attack and lost more than $260 million;

On May 23, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the SEC decided today to postpone the decision on the XRP spot ETFs from Bitwise and CoinShares, as well as the Litecoin spot ETF from CoinShares, and to delay the decision on the physical Bitcoin redemption for Fidelity’s FBTC, but officially accepted the TRX staking ETF application submitted by Canary Capital.

macroeconomics

1. On May 19, according to Bitcoin For Corporations, UK-listed company Vinanz purchased 16.9 Bitcoins at an average price of $103,341, totaling approximately $1.75 million;

On May 20, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations;

3. On 20 May, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs) to 3% and 3.5% from 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.

4. On May 21, according to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June is 5.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 94.7%.

5. On 22 May, Japan’s 40-year government bond yield rose 6bps to 3.675%, hitting its highest level since 2007;

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from May 19th to May 23rd, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States was $2.75 billion, and as of May 23, the total outflow of GBTC (grayscale) was $23.033 billion, currently holding $20.426 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holding $70.058 billion. The total market capitalization of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is: $134.838 billion.

Net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETF: $247.7 million.

Envision the future

Event Announcement

1. Bitcoin 2025 will be held in Las Vegas, USA from May 27 to 29;

2. NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025;

3. Permissionless IV will be held in New York, USA from June 24 to 26, 2025;

4. EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30 to July 3, 2025.

Project Progress

1. Ethereum developers have announced that fusaka-devnet-0 is expected to go live on May 26.

2. The eUSDe launched by Ethena Labs (in collaboration with Ethereal) Pendle pool expires on May 29, offering 50 times Ethena rewards and Ethereal points;

3. The lvlUSD and slvlUSD market in collaboration with Pendle and LevelUSD has a maturity date of May 29, 2025. lvlUSD is the native non-yield stablecoin of the protocol, based on USDT and USDC; whereas slvlUSD is the staked yield stablecoin, with yields derived from the base yield of Aave V3 deposits and the re-staking yield of Aave aTokens.

4. FTX will start distributing over $5 billion in funds to creditors on May 30.

5. The Ethereum re-staking protocol ether.fi Season 5 will run from February 1, 2025, to May 31, 2025, and the rewards will include ETHFI tokens (at least 10 million), partner tokens, and King Protocol rewards;

6. The last 25% of the Mint community airdrop on the Ethereum L2 network will be unlocked on May 31.

7. The Treasure Chain under the Treasure DAO of the blockchain gaming ecosystem will close at 3:00 AM Beijing time on May 31. Holders must cross-chain all ETH, MAGIC, SMOL, and NFTs before the end of May.

Important Event

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated a public comment period regarding the Litecoin ETF proposed by Canary Funds, focusing on whether the ETF proposal meets regulatory requirements to prevent fraud and market manipulation. The deadline for public comments is May 26, 2025, and the deadline for rebuttal comments is June 9, 2025;

2. Kraken sent a confirmation email to FTX customers stating that the next round of FTX compensation distribution will take place on May 30, 2025, and this distribution will include creditors with claims both below and above $50,000.

3. On May 28, U.S. Vice President Vance delivered a speech at the “Bitcoin 2025” conference;

4. On May 29, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting.

Token Unlock

1. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on May 25, worth approximately $7.21 million, accounting for 1.95% of the circulating supply.

2. Axelar (ALX) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on May 27, worth approximately 5.33 million USD, accounting for 1.12% of the circulating supply.

3. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 21.02 million tokens on May 28, worth approximately $3.66 million, accounting for 2.1% of the circulating supply;

4. Renzo (REZ) will unlock 423 million tokens on May 29, worth approximately $6.93 million, accounting for 4.24% of the circulating supply;

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