Q4 will determine whether the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin has ended or not.

Last Thursday, Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $124,000, opening up an important test for one of the oldest rules in finance, according to Joe Consorti, Growth Director at Theya. In a video released on August 14, Consorti argued that Q4 will shed light on whether the four-year halving cycle that the market has long observed still influences price behavior or whether the asset has entered a new phase shaped by large traditional financial funds and patience.

“Bitcoin has just reached a new all-time high of over 123,700 dollars,” he said at the beginning of the video. “Although there has been a slight adjustment… we are still continuing to rise.” This price level aligns with developments on major dashboards on Wednesday: Bitcoin price surpassed 124,400 dollars today, as macro investors focus on the potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and market risk sentiment is strengthening.

Q4 may mark the end of the four-year Bitcoin cycle

Consorti has set the stage for this explosion in the context of a month-long battle around the $118,000–$120,000 level, describing how “long and short positions have fought for control of the market,” with buyers “slowly but surely” gaining the upper hand. He links this development to the seasonal shift away from “the gloomy summer” and a policy backdrop that he expects will become supportive: “As Wall Street returns from vacation… the Fed is preparing for its first rate cut in a year as the U.S. economy recovers.” Futures markets have increasingly predicted a cut in September, which has supported risk assets broadly alongside the weakness of the dollar.

Core Theory of Consorti

The core argument of Consorti is that this expansion has a distinct structure. “This is also the longest bull market for Bitcoin ever… lasting 21 months compared to 13 months,” he said, using this time frame to pose an important question: “This raises the question, is the four-year cycle still valid? At the very least, the four-year cycle will be tested in Q4 of this year.”

He pointed out analysis from on-chain researcher James Check (Checkmate) at CheckOnChain. “If we witness a strong rise and peak at the end of the four-year cycle, the theory remains intact… but if not, the behavior of Bitcoin through market cycles may have changed forever.” Check also wrote recently that “if there was ever a time for the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle to be broken, this market environment is probably that time,” emphasizing the preparedness of veteran on-chain analysts for a pattern change.

Changes in the buyer base

According to Consorti, what has changed is the base of buyers. “Traditional financial funds have entered the picture, and they operate under different rules.” He emphasized spot Bitcoin ETF funds as the main channel: “These funds are bought by retirees, pension funds, and endowment funds… These are investors who do not intend to sell in the near term. They plan to hold it for many years, even decades, and only gradually reduce their positions over time.”

To illustrate, he cited the endowment fund of Harvard University: “Their endowment fund purchased 1.9 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust, worth $116.7 million in Q2.” This position—disclosed in a recent 13F filing—clearly reflects institutional acceptance of BlackRock’s IBIT.

Consorti has extended this argument to bond adopters: “These are companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets without plans to sell. Forever… serious players… are fixed factors in the market.” He argues that this indicates a clear evolution in the structure and pace of the market: “Instead of the violent booms and busts of previous cycles, we are seeing a consistent rise trend, marked by periods of consolidation, followed by rapid expansion, and then consolidation again.”

As the supply is increasingly held by long-term holders and the asset’s capital base thickens, “natural volatility decreases, but the growth potential does not disappear. It only takes place in longer trajectories, with larger fluctuations and a slower pace.” He also noted that this maturation has been easily noticeable as Bitcoin develops “beyond the current market capitalization of 2.4 trillion dollars,” although he acknowledged that Q4 will be a decisive moment for the debate around this cycle.

“In Q4, this momentum could be clearly manifested,” Consorti concluded. “A combination of loose financial conditions, new institutional capital flows after the summer, and sustained structural demand from ETFs, corporations, and high-net-worth investors could pave the way for another price rise and a successful Q4.” However, he emphasized that: “Only after Q4 this year will we truly know whether the four-year cycle has really died and been buried… We just have to wait and see.”

Mr. Teacher