Some insights on the future evolution of perp dex

Discuss several insights on the future evolution of perp dex:

1. The “digital game” of brushing trading volume to exchange for airdrop expectations is not sustainable.

If a large number of users are engaging in wash trading in the expectation of airdrops instead of genuinely using the product, if professional arbitrageurs are low-costly stripping away most of the incentive budget, and if the project parties tacitly consent to or even encourage these behaviors for the sake of better data.

Over time, the entire points system will turn into an expectation game that is not linked to any real value creation, and there will always be a day when the bubble will burst.

2. The low-fee War between platforms has led to users' “implicit buy orders.”

The internal competition between platforms will compress the “revenue model” to the extreme, but what is the value capture equilibrium point for maintaining zero fees? If what appears to be “zero fees” actually incurs losses in areas such as clearing penalties and funding rates that users cannot see or do not care about, this approach will ultimately be unsustainable in the long run.

Either sell PFOF to market makers like Robinhood or become a broker that provides value-added services, both of which require long-term iterative product capabilities to succeed.

3. The CLOB-led perp dex boom is still just an in-market carnival.

Perp dex is not a new species, but the current trillion-level false prosperity is more about the volume generated by Crypto Native assets like BTC, ETH, etc. In the future, as TrdfFi assets shift on-chain, for instance, stocks, foreign exchange, and commodities that truly have demand, the CLOB's full-chain order book model may not be effective, and instead, Oracle or RFQ models may be more efficient.

The question arises: should we proactively embrace traditional incremental assets, or should we spend $100,000 to buy CLOB Dex code to engage in an incentive battle? It will be clear who is truly creating value.

4. The high valuation supported by the black box execution layer cannot be effectively verified.

Although some perp dex claim their differentiation, the massive trading data and the hidden black box technology cannot truly justify a high valuation Price in. If users do not even know how their orders are processed, where the liquidity comes from, or how prices are formed, and if the so-called “optimal execution” actually relies on eating up user MEV and profiting from information asymmetry, this is not a true technological moat.

Using zk proof to prove the logic is correct, but real-time tracking of orders, whether the order data indicators and technical means can withstand market tests is the key;

5. Perp DEX as a Service will dilute the overall value of the entire sector.

If everyone is doing CLOB, supporting similar trading pairs, having maker/taker fees, and having a point system, if the only differences are a better-looking UI, higher expectations for airdrops, and more aggressive KOL shilling, over time, the overall value of the entire Perp DEX track will be severely diluted.

Is it to continue the “one-click chain” to create internal competition, or to truly solve user pain points and establish differentiation? The former will only plunge the entire track into a death spiral, while the latter has the potential to yield truly valuable projects.