Alpha + Perp: Binance's new coin "market maker script", a bull run illusion directed by market makers.

Original Title: On-chain Alpha Game: A One-Sided Game Directed by Market Makers?

Original author: @0xBenniee

Source: Wu Says Real

Reprint: Daisy, Mars Finance

In the current market environment where liquidity is not yet sufficient during the interest rate cut cycle, the bull market of Binance Alpha continues to unfold: an unknown project can often silently achieve several times the increase in a short period.

This article will discuss the market-making strategy of the initial launch of Alpha + Perp from the perspective of a market maker, with the inner monologue of a market maker, achieving “dancing with the market maker.”

Binance Alpha is equivalent to a natural liquidity pool, attracting huge attention and retail resources on the first launch day, while also drawing a group of native Alpha users to participate in trading — they may choose to sell and take their salary, or have confidence in holding continuously or increasing their position. Each “Alpha worker” is betting from their own perspective.

But if we switch to the perspective of the project party and the market maker, the inner thoughts are actually more straightforward: I have already paid 1-2% in chip costs, launched Alpha, and additionally spent costs to activate Perp. Having paid so much in “protection fees,” the probability of abandoning the project later is relatively low.

So we witnessed the subsequent “Alpha on-chain bull market.” In fact, relying solely on the Alpha spot market makes it difficult to achieve large-scale distribution. Market makers and liquidity providers must leverage Perp, continuously increasing OI to attract more retail investors to participate, turning this trade into a “casino” where gamblers keep coming back to the table.

The logic of today's projects is no longer the “narrative-driven” of the past, but has completely shifted to being capital-driven: those with thicker chips can pull off more aggressive market movements; as long as there are enough gamblers entering the market, market makers can continuously create volatility and extract profits from it.

The summary is as follows.

Alpha provides a natural attention pool and an initial user base;

Perp is the core tool for the market makers to increase OI and attract traffic.

For market makers, the key logic on the launch day is:

Alpha → Accumulation + Position Building;

Perp → Pumping + Distribution.

Taking the launch of a new coin as an example, let's see how market makers can profit through Alpha+Perp.

The launch time for Alpha is 8:00 ( UTC ), and the launch time for Perp is 10:30. This leaves only two and a half hours for market makers to receive their goods. This period is essentially a stage where market makers and retail investors compete for chips. Active market makers will grit their teeth and take on the goods, but if a large number of free-rider retail investors seize this portion of chips, the subsequent cost of market makers' price increase will rise. An excellent market maker will strive to control their costs to maximize profits.

(From the market situation, the main market-making force on Alpha is mostly active MM. According to common industry speculation, their funding scale is usually in the range of several million dollars, while the liquidity supply on the spot side is relatively sufficient. )

After the launch of Perp, market makers will attract more retail investors by pushing up OI (open interest), turning this game into a “betting table that gets more lively as more people join.” The core function of Perp is not just to provide hedging tools, but to amplify market attention and trading participation.

At the same time, market makers/project parties often cooperate with relevant KOLs to release some favorable news or carry out marketing PR, further creating topics and excitement to attract more attention. Whether it's going long or short, it essentially contributes liquidity to the market, which also provides the manipulators with greater maneuvering space and more sufficient sources of profit.

As shown in the figure, after Perp went live, the OI was quickly pushed up and remained stable at a high level. In the early stages, the market makers usually do not choose to complete their distribution through large-scale surges or violent sell-offs. The reason is: if they sell off too early, they are unlikely to buy back the chips at the same or even lower cost, which would instead raise their overall cost of pushing the market up. The core goal of the market makers is to hand over the chips to retail investors as completely as possible at a high level, ensuring that the distribution is successfully completed.

During the process of price surges, the funding rate often provides critical reference. By observing the changes in the funding rate, market makers can determine whether market sentiment is overheated and make detailed optimizations based on this. For example, when the funding rate unusually spikes, market makers can use futures hedging or short-term funding rate arbitrage to reduce holding costs and further enhance overall returns.

Spot is all in the hands of market makers. As long as market makers do not crash the market, the open interest continues to rise during the rally phase from 9/12 to 9/15, and the funding rates have surged multiple times.

Peak: 0.3–0.4% / 4h (annualized approximately 270%–360%);

Average: 0.1–0.2% / 4h (annualized approximately 90%–180%).

This means that market makers can establish hedged short positions in the contract market while receiving goods in the spot market, allowing them to continuously benefit from funding rates, creating a stable arbitrage cash flow, which serves as an important means of cost optimization.

On September 16, when the OI remained high and long positions were heavily congested, the market maker chose to significantly dump the price, distributing spot while short positions were profitable:

The price dropped from 0.058 to 0.035, a decrease of about 40%;

The cost range for the dealer is 0.015–0.02, and the average selling price is about 0.045–0.05;

Single transaction profit margin approximately +150%–200%.

(Ideally, the returns from the on-chain liquidity pool have not been included in the overall calculation. The specific strategies of different market makers also vary.)

Key Points for Dancing with the Dealer

1. In the early stages, if a project has a high degree of control over the supply or there is a lot of community FUD, it often deserves more attention; whereas grand slam projects, due to their complex chip structures, are inherently more difficult to analyze clearly, and users should participate with caution.

2. If Alpha+Perp can be launched simultaneously on the first day, it usually means that liquidity is sufficient, and price fluctuations will also be more intense.

3. Users attempt to deduce the dealer's profit situation in each wave of rally and pullback, which helps to understand their trading logic.

4. Pay attention to the pricing of Pancake V3 at the opening. If the opening price is too high, waiting for a more suitable price and pace may be more prudent.

Conclusion

The launch model of Binance Alpha+Perp is reshaping the current new coin market landscape. On the surface, it appears to be a narrative-driven new coin bull market, but in reality, it resembles a structured game directed by market makers. Alpha provides chip accumulation and initial flow, Perp amplifies liquidity and volatility, while OI and funding rates become key tools for the operators. As retail investors, we may catch short-term opportunities from this, but more importantly, we need to understand the logic behind it: how far the market can go does not depend on how captivating the underlying narrative is, but rather on how robust the capital is and how precise the timing is.