XRP Price Prediction: Whale Spends 50 Million USD Daily, Does the ETF Save It or Crush the Camel?

XRP Price predictions are caught in a range-bound struggle, with whales dumping over 50 million dollars daily for nearly two years. Peter Brandt warns that the descending triangle could trigger a big dump. However, the market is betting that the SEC will approve the XRP ETF on October 18, with Polymarket showing a probability of over 99% for approval by 2025. Currently, the XRP price hovers around 2.83 dollars, and this article provides an in-depth analysis of XRP whale selling pressure, XRP ETF catalysts, and key technical levels.

XRP Whale dumping sets record: Daily pressure of $50 million continues

(Source: CryptoQuant)

The biggest threat facing XRP price predictions comes from the ongoing pressure of large-scale selling. According to the latest data from Whale Flow using a 30-day moving average, “Whales” holding more than 1,000 XRP tokens are intensifying their selling efforts, with approximately $50 million worth of XRP flowing out of whale wallets daily. Even more concerning for the market is that this is not a short-term phenomenon, but rather a long-term trend that has persisted since the beginning of 2024.

CryptoQuant's capital flow chart visually presents the astonishing fact that for nearly the past two years, XRP Whales have shown a continuous net outflow with no significant reversal signs. This scale and duration of selling behavior, which is extremely rare, has created strong and persistent selling pressure, profoundly impacting market sentiment negatively. Many analysts focusing on XRP price predictions have begun to question what exactly is driving these large investors to so resolutely reduce their holdings of XRP.

Possible explanations include strategic rebalancing by institutional investors, profit-taking by early investors, or fatigue over the long-standing legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC. Regardless of the motivation, the daily dumping scale of $50 million in XRP by Whales mathematically exerts tremendous pressure on the price. In the absence of equal or greater buying support, this persistent selling pressure will inevitably suppress the upside potential of the price and may even drive the price further down.

The level of dumping has raised serious concerns among analysts. Several market observers warn that unless there is a clear bullish reversal or significant positive news that changes the behavior pattern of the whales, the current downtrend may accelerate. More seriously, the continued selling by whales could create a psychological contagion effect, putting pressure on retail investors and minor shareholders, triggering a broader panic sell-off. In the cryptocurrency market, the behavior of whales is often seen as a signal of “smart money,” and their large-scale withdrawals could shake other investors' confidence in XRP price predictions.

Technical indicators flashing red: Descending triangle signals larger fall

(Source: X)

If the selling off of XRP by whales is a warning sign for the fundamentals, then technical analysis adds more pessimistic color to the price prediction of XRP. Renowned chart analyst Peter Brandt recently publicly marked XRP as a “bearish candidate,” citing that the price chart is forming a classic descending triangle pattern. This technical signal holds significant predictive value in the cryptocurrency market, often foreshadowing an impending substantial fall.

A descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern characterized by continuously declining price highs, forming a downward-sloping upper trendline, while the lows repeatedly test a relatively horizontal support level. This pattern reflects a market dynamic where the selling pressure gradually strengthens, while the buying defense becomes increasingly passive. Once the price breaks below the horizontal support line, it often triggers an accelerated decline, as the final defense line being breached can trigger a large number of stop-loss orders and panic selling.

Peter Brandt clearly pointed out in his technical commentary that for XRP to become a genuine bearish target, it must “complete a descending triangle,” meaning the price must fall below the key support level he identified. Currently, the XRP price hovers around $2.83, and if it breaks below the support range indicated by Brandt, it may trigger a larger technical dumping. Technical traders typically establish short positions or close long positions when this pattern completes, which would further exacerbate the downward pressure.

From the perspective of volume-price relationship, the recent changes in trading volume of XRP are also worth noting. In an ideal descending triangle, the trading volume usually shrinks as the pattern develops, and then expands upon breakout. If XRP breaks below the support level accompanied by a significant increase in volume, this will confirm the validity of the bearish breakout, further skewing XRP price predictions towards the pessimistic.

Apart from the descending triangle, other technical indicators have not provided much comfort. If the Relative Strength Index remains below 50, it indicates that market momentum is leaning towards the sellers. If the moving average system forms a dead cross, where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, it is also a classic bearish signal. Investors paying attention to XRP price predictions need to closely monitor these technical levels, as the accuracy often increases significantly when multiple technical indicators send warning signals simultaneously.

XRP ETF approval countdown: Is the redemption on October 18 or a bait?

(Source: Polymarket)

Just when the technical indicators and XRP whale selling data pointed to a pessimistic moment, news of the XRP ETF injected a glimmer of hope into the market and added significant uncertainty to XRP price predictions. Several sources, including well-known market commentator “Steph is Crypto,” claim that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may approve the XRP spot ETF before October 18. If this prediction comes true, it will be a milestone event in the development history of XRP and could trigger a massive influx of institutional funds.

The impact of ETF approval on cryptocurrencies has been fully validated in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF brought in hundreds of billions of dollars in capital inflow, driving prices to record highs. Although JPMorgan's expectations for the scale of the XRP ETF are relatively conservative, even smaller-scale institutional capital inflows could have a significant impact on prices in the short term, especially considering the relatively small market capitalization of XRP, where the same amount of capital inflow would have a greater price impact.

What’s even more exciting is the betting data on Polymarket. This decentralized prediction market shows that bettors have extremely high confidence in the SEC approving the XRP ETF in 2025, with a probability exceeding 99%. This nearly certain odds reflect the market’s strong anticipation of an improved regulatory environment. Ripple's legal dispute with the SEC made significant progress in 2023, as the court ruled that XRP itself is not a security, clearing the biggest legal hurdle for ETF approval. Coupled with the overall shift in the U.S. regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies becoming more favorable, the approval of the XRP ETF seems to be just a matter of time.

However, experienced traders are cautious about the XRP ETF news. There is a well-known phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market called “buy the rumor, sell the news,” which means that the market tends to price in good news ahead of its announcement, and when the news actually materializes, it can trigger profit-taking. Some analysts warn that October 18 may become a “sell the news” moment, especially if whales use the price rebound from the ETF approval as an opportunity to exit at high levels.

Regulatory experts also remind investors to maintain patience and realistic expectations. According to research from Trackinsight and CF Benchmarks, the SEC's immediate approval still faces numerous procedural hurdles. From the submission of the application to final approval, it usually requires multiple rounds of review, a public comment period, and potential delays. Even in an optimistic scenario, it may take several months from now until actual trading begins. During this waiting period, XRP whales dumping and technical pressures will continue to exert influence.

Three Scenario Predictions for XRP Price Forecast

Based on the comprehensive XRP Whale dumping data, technical analysis, and expectations for the XRP ETF, three possible scenarios for XRP price prediction in the coming weeks can be outlined. The first is an optimistic scenario where the XRP ETF is approved around October 18, triggering a strong market reaction, with a significant influx of funds pushing the price to break through the current upper boundary of the descending triangle in the short term. In this scenario, the bearish technical pattern is negated by the bullish fundamentals, and XRP could quickly rebound to $3.2 or even higher levels. The key premise of this scenario is that the influx of institutional funds must be fast enough to absorb the daily dumping pressure of $50 million from XRP Whales.

The second scenario is a neutral one, where ETF news remains undecided or the market reacts calmly after approval, with the “buy the news, sell the fact” effect dominating the market. In this case, the price of XRP may continue to fluctuate around the current $2.8, neither breaking through the upper resistance nor temporarily holding the key support. This range-bound consolidation could last for several weeks, waiting for a clearer directional catalyst to emerge. Investors at this stage will experience emotional tug-of-war, with optimism and pessimism alternating to dominate the short-term trend.

The third scenario is a pessimistic one, where technical warnings become a reality. If XRP falls below the key support level identified by Peter Brandt, completing a descending triangle pattern, it could trigger a technical acceleration in the fall. In this scenario, the continued selling pressure from XRP whales does not receive sufficient buying support, and the price may quickly drop to $2.5 or even lower levels. Even if the XRP ETF is eventually approved, if it is announced only after breaking key technical levels, the market may have already entered a state of deep panic, requiring a longer time to restore confidence.

From a risk management perspective, the current XRP price forecast is full of variables, and investors should develop strategies based on their own risk tolerance. Conservative investors may choose to wait and see, waiting for the ETF news to clarify or for a clear directional breakout in the technicals before entering the market. Aggressive investors who are optimistic about the ETF catalyst might consider participating with a small position, but must set strict stop-loss points to prevent a technical collapse. Investors who already hold XRP need to decide whether to stay near the key support level, betting on favorable ETF news, or to take profits and wait for a clearer market environment.

The Deep Logic Behind Whale Behavior

To gain a deeper understanding of XRP price predictions, it is necessary to explore the motivations behind the XRP Whale selling. The daily selling scale of $50 million, continuing for nearly two years, indicates that this is not a random or emotional decision, but a well-considered strategic action. One possibility is the token unlocking and distribution plans of early investors and team members, gradually liquidating according to a set timeline. If this is the case, the selling pressure may continue until the unlocking period ends, with a relatively predictable timeline.

Another possibility is the portfolio rebalancing of institutional investors. After experiencing significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market from 2024 to 2025, many institutions may reassess their risk exposure, choosing to reduce holdings in assets like XRP that have higher regulatory uncertainty, and turn towards relatively certain options like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This structural shift means that selling pressure may persist for a longer period until the market finds a new equilibrium point of supply and demand.

The third possibility is a change in the confidence of Whales regarding the long-term prospects of Ripple and XRP. Although there have been phased victories in legal disputes, the actual application scenarios and adoption speed of XRP may not have met the expectations of early investors. If Whales believe that the fundamental prospects of XRP are not as bright as expected, they may choose a long-term reduction strategy. This situation is the most unfavorable for XRP price predictions, as it indicates that the issue is not a short-term technical adjustment, but rather a long-term structural challenge.

It is worth noting that not all dumping is necessarily a bearish signal. Some whales may simply be optimizing their liquidity management by converting part of their XRP into stablecoins to take part in other opportunities, and may reallocate back in the future. The key is to observe the flow of funds after the dumping: if it moves to other cryptocurrencies, it indicates continued confidence in the entire industry; if it shifts to fiat and exits, the signal is more pessimistic.