Key Points:
Ripple Swell 2025 may reshape the future of XRP, with top speakers and speculation about ETFs igniting investor enthusiasm.
BlackRock's silence has intensified speculation about the iShares XRP Trust, which could trigger a new wave of institutional demand.
The U.S. government shutdown delayed the approval of the XRP spot ETF, but it also gave BlackRock an opportunity to submit an application based on the new listing rules from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
As Ripple Swell 2025 approaches, XRP will be in the spotlight. Compared to last year, there will be significant changes at Ripple Swell 2025, and the resolution of the SEC v. Ripple case will open the door for XRP to enter the mainstream market. Key speakers may make milestone announcements that could trigger the next breakthrough for XRP.
Given that the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 33rd day on November 3rd (Monday), the Ripple Swell conference may coincide with a series of events related to XRP spot ETFs. Analysts expect strong institutional demand for XRP spot ETFs, which could drive the price of XRP to new highs.
Ripple Swell 2025: Will BlackRock announce the launch of iShares XRP Trust?
As the excitement for the Ripple Swell 2025 conference continues to rise, the list of keynote speakers highlights the changes in the cryptocurrency landscape since Trump's election as president and the resolution of the Ripple case.
The conference held in New York will invite speakers from BlackRock (BLK), Nasdaq, BNY Mellon, Citigroup ©, and even the White House.
Given that BlackRock has not made any statements regarding the iShares XRP Trust plan previously, its attendance at this conference suggests that unexpected news may be announced. BlackRock has been a dominant player in the cryptocurrency spot ETF space.
The issuer's flagship cryptocurrency ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has accumulated a net inflow of $64.9 billion since its launch. Although IBIT is not officially listed until January 2024, its asset size has already ranked among the top 30 ETFs.
Given that the US Bitcoin spot ETF market has seen a cumulative net inflow of $61.15 billion since its launch, the emergence of IBIT has played a key role in Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a historic high of $125,761 in October 2025. In contrast, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has experienced a cumulative net outflow of $24.68 billion since its inception.
Ethereum (ETH) has also benefited from BlackRock's strong influence. The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has seen a cumulative net inflow of $14.2 billion, while the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF market has recorded a cumulative net inflow of $14.4 billion during the same period. The strong demand for Ethereum spot ETFs drove the price of Ethereum to a historic high of $4,958 in August.
Market experts expect that the demand for the XRP spot ETF will be similar to that of the Bitcoin spot ETF and the Ethereum spot ETF. However, BlackRock's involvement may send a stronger bullish signal.
US SEC Timeline, Government Shutdown, and the Path to XRP ETF Issuance
Renowned cryptocurrency commentator Marty Party ( Marty Party ) refuted claims that BlackRock plans to exit the XRP spot ETF market in August, stating:
“Correction: After multiple communications, it has been confirmed that this statement is false. […] SOL and Ripple ETF are both in discussions with BlackRock - the specific timeline is still uncertain - the deadline for submitting applications is in October.”
It is worth noting that the General Listing Standards (GLS) for commodity stocks set by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. government's shutdown have affected the relevant timelines. The GLS allows issuers to list cryptocurrencies and commodity ETFs on exchanges without going through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) usual review process, which can take up to 240 days.
However, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the launch of the XRP spot ETF, which the issuers had applied for before the GLS approval in September. It is worth noting that this government shutdown has provided BlackRock with a window to launch the XRP spot ETF according to the SEC's general listing standards.
Nate Geraci, the president of NovaDius Wealth Management, also believes that BlackRock will enter the XRP spot ETF market. He had previously stated:
“I certainly believe that BlackRock will apply for spot ETFs for XRP and SOL.”
People's expectations for the eventual launch of the XRP spot ETF, coupled with favorable legislation for cryptocurrencies, remain positive factors driving its development. The launch of the iShares XRP Trust will further solidify XRP's growing position among retail investors.
Technical Outlook: Key Price Levels for XRP
On Sunday, November 2, XRP rose by 0.95%, partially recovering from a decline of 0.18% the previous day, closing at $2.5288. The token outperformed the overall cryptocurrency market, which rose by 0.37%.
Following an 11.84% drop in October, XRP continues to trade below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bearish tendency. However, certain events may trigger a reversal of the bearish trend.
Key technical levels to pay attention to include:
Support levels: $2.5, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
50-day EMA resistance level: $2.6506.
200-day EMA resistance level: $2.6062.
Resistance levels: $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.
Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Trading Days
In the short term, the following key events may affect price trends:
U.S. Senate vote.
XRP spot ETF (delayed or launched) and BlackRock's iShares XRP Trust program.
The demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset by blue-chip companies.
Regulatory Milestone: Ripple applies for a US chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill (Market Structure Bill), and news related to SWIFT may also impact short-term price trends.
Bearish Scenario: Risk of Breaking Below $2.5
BlackRock has canceled its plan to launch an XRP spot ETF.
The U.S. government shutdown continues.
A series of adverse factors have led to the delay in the approval of the XRP spot ETF.
The U.S. Senate has raised questions about cryptocurrency-friendly legislation, including the “Market Structure Act.”
Blue chip companies avoid using XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has delayed or rejected Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered banking license.
SWIFT has maintained its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple's market access.
These bearish events could push the price of XRP below $2.5, with $2.35 potentially becoming the next target price. If it falls below this level, $2.2 will be the next key support level.
Although XRP has maintained the $2.5 level, the descending channel shows that XRP tested the upper resistance multiple times at the beginning of October. However, XRP failed to break through the upper resistance, and each rebound dropped to lower price levels, which is a bearish signal. Please refer to the graph below.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Support
The U.S. government has reopened, and the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also returned to work.
BlackRock submitted the S-1 filing for the iShares XRP Trust, and the XRP spot ETF has begun trading.
Blue chip companies are increasing their holdings of XRP for national treasury reserve purposes, and the general public is also starting to adopt Ripple technology.
Ripple has obtained a chartered banking license in the United States, and the U.S. Senate has passed the Market Structure Bill.
These positive events may drive the XRP price towards $2.62 and open the door for a retest of $2.80. If the price continues to break above $2.80, bulls may set their sights on the psychological level of $3.0, with the potential to challenge the historical high of $3.66.
Despite a decline in October, XRP's trading range has gradually narrowed at the beginning of November. Please see the chart below. The current trend indicates an upcoming new volatility, with significant attention on the U.S. Senate, spot ETF, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) bills. A breakout above the upper boundary will be the key for XRP to hit new highs.
Outlook: Long-term bullish prospects remain solid
The recent trend of XRP depends on Capitol Hill and the market demand for the XRP spot ETF.
If the demand for spot ETFs from institutions meets expectations, and the “Market Structure Act” is finally submitted for President Trump's signature, the price of XRP tokens is expected to reach new highs.
